Ecological Resilience and Sustainable Development: Dynamic Assessment and Evolution Mechanisms of Landscape Patterns and Ecotourism Suitability in the Yangtze River Delta Region

Ecotourism, as a resilient and sustainable form of tourism, plays an increasingly vital role in regional economic growth and ecological conservation, particularly in the face of challenges such as climate change and rapid urbanization. This study employs spatial-temporal analysis tools including GIS, Fragstats, and GeoDa to examine the dynamic evolution of ecotourism suitability levels (ESL) and landscape patterns (LP) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2002 to 2022. By incorporating spatial autocorrelation analysis, the relationship between ESL and LP is investigated to assess the adaptive capacity of the regional ecotourism system. The results reveal the following: (1) Overall Trends: ESL in the YRD has generally increased over the past two decades, with expansions observed in both high and very low suitability areas, while areas of low suitability have contracted. (2) Spatial Patterns: Core cities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Hefei exhibit high ESL; however, these areas also face intensified landscape fragmentation and decreased ecological connectivity. (3) Landscape Patterns: The region has experienced increasing landscape fragmentation and diversity, particularly in economically advanced zones, posing significant challenges to ecological resilience. (4) Spatial Clustering: Notable spatial clustering of ESL and LP indices is identified in highly urbanized areas, underscoring the necessity for adaptive landscape planning and flexible policy frameworks. This study provides empirical evidence and strategic recommendations to enhance the resilience and sustainability of ecotourism in rapidly urbanizing regions, supporting adaptive responses to crises and informed long-term decision-making.