Interaction Mechanism and Coupling Strategy of Higher Education and Innovation Capability in China Based on Interprovincial Panel Data from 2010 to 2022

The sustainable development of higher education exhibits a strong and measurable association with the level of regional innovation capacity. Drawing on panel data covering 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2010 to 2022, we construct evaluation frameworks for both higher education and regional innovation capacity using the entropy weight method. These are complemented by kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, and the Obstacle Degree Model. Together, these tools enable a comprehensive investigation into the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of coupling coordination dynamics between the two systems. The results indicate the following: (1) Both higher education and regional innovation capacity indices exhibit steady growth, accompanied by a clear temporal gradient differentiation. (2) The coupling coordination degree shows an overall upward trend, with significant inter-regional disparities, notably “higher in the east and low in the west”. (3) The spatial distribution of the coupling coordination degree reveals positive spatial autocorrelation, with provinces exhibiting similar levels tending to form spatial clusters, most commonly of the low–low or high–high type. (4) The spatial heterogeneity is pronounced, with inter-regional differences driving overall imbalance. (5) Key obstacles hindering regional innovation include inadequate R&D investment, limited trade openness, and weak technological development. In higher education sectors, limitations stem from insufficient social service benefits and efficiency of flow. This study recommends promoting the synchronized advancement of higher education and regional innovation through region-specific development strategies, strengthening institutional infrastructure, and accurately identifying and addressing key barriers. These efforts are essential to fostering high-quality, coordinated regional development.