Spatiotemporal Patterns and Zoning-Based Compensation Mechanisms for Land-Use-Driven Carbon Emissions Towards Sustainable Development: County-Level Evidence from Shaanxi Province, China

Under the global climate governance framework, advancing China’s “Dual Carbon” goals within the context of sustainable development requires detailed, micro-level research. While existing studies predominantly focus on national or provincial macro scales, there remains a critical gap in county-level analyses that account for regional heterogeneity—particularly in geographically and economically transitional provinces like Shaanxi. This study focuses on 107 counties in Shaanxi Province, using land-use data from 2000 to 2022 to construct carbon emission and carbon compensation accounting models. We measure horizontal carbon compensation standards, examine spatiotemporal patterns of carbon emissions, delineate compensation zones, and propose regional low-carbon development strategies to inform sustainable development planning. The results show the following: (1) They reveal a steady increase in CO 2 emissions over the period (from 940 million tons in 2000 to 2.089 billion tons in 2022), highlighting an ongoing challenge for sustainability, with a spatial pattern of “high in the north, low in the south, and outward expansion from the center.” (2) In 2022, carbon payments across the province totaled CNY 1.068 billion, while compensation reached CNY 670 million, with significant spatial heterogeneity: 87 counties identified as payers (66 heavy) and 20 as receivers (17 heavy). (3) By integrating the Economic Contribution Coefficient, Ecological Support Coefficient, and Carbon Offset Rate with Major Function-oriented Zoning, we classify the counties into 12 carbon compensation subregions and recommend gradient-based development strategies. This refined zoning framework provides a clear operational framework for formulating differentiated low-carbon land-use optimization strategies and regional carbon compensation policies tailored to the characteristics of different functional zones. The research findings offer differentiated compensation standards and low-carbon land-use planning guidelines to support Shaanxi Province’s transition towards sustainable development, serving as a reference for carbon governance and sustainable development practices in China’s provinces with transitional geographical features and promoting the realization of China’s “Dual Carbon” targets as integral components of national sustainable development.