Sustainability and Grid Reliability of Renewable Energy Expansion Projects in Saudi Arabia by 2030

The penetration of renewable energy, especially solar and wind, is increasing globally to promote a sustainable environment. However, in the Middle East, this momentum is slower compared to other regions, primarily due to abundant local fossil fuel reserves and historically low energy prices. This trend is shifting, with several countries, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), setting ambitious goals. Specifically, KSA’s Vision 2030 aims to generate 50% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030. Due to favorable conditions for solar and wind, various mega-projects have either been completed or are underway in KSA. This study analyzes the potential and reliability impact of these projects on the power system through a three-step process. In the first step, all major projects are identified, and data related to these projects, such as global horizontal irradiance, wind speed, temperature, and other relevant parameters, are collected. In the second step, these data are used to estimate the solar and wind potential at various sites, along with annual averages and seasonal averages for different extreme seasons, such as winter and summer. Finally, in the third step, a reliability assessment of power generation is conducted to evaluate the adequacy of renewable projects within the national power grid. This study addresses a gap in the literature by providing a region-specific reliability analysis using actual project data from KSA, which remains underexplored in existing research. Sequential Monte Carlo simulations are employed, and various reliability indices, including Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), Loss of Energy Expectation (LOEE), Loss of Load Frequency (LOLF), Energy Not Supplied per Interruption (ENSINT), and Demand Not Supplied per Interruption (DNSINT) are analyzed. The analysis shows that integrating renewable energy into KSA’s power grid significantly enhances its reliability. The analysis shows that integrating renewable energy into KSA’s power grid significantly enhances its reliability, with improvements observed across all reliability indices, demonstrating the viability of meeting Vision 2030 targets.