The Synergistic Effect of Urban Economic, Social and Space Factors on Residential Carbon Emissions: A Case Study on Provincial Capitals in China

Within the context of China’s commitment to carbon reduction goals, particularly in urban areas, addressing carbon emissions stemming from residents’ travel activities assumes paramount significance. Drawing upon established theoretical frameworks, this study advances several hypotheses delineating the determinants of low-carbon behaviors among urban residents. It analyzes panel data from 30 provincial capitals in China using a time–individual dual fixed effects model. This study empirically scrutinizes the posited theoretical model, aiming to elucidate the factors shaping urban residents’ low-carbon behavioral patterns and provide a decision-making basis for low-carbon construction and management of urban space. The findings underscore several notable associations. The disposable income, population density, and urban built-up areas exhibit significant positive correlations with carbon emissions among residents. Conversely, the urban gross domestic product (GDP) displays a significant negative correlation with carbon emissions. Furthermore, a positive correlation is discerned between the expanse of green spaces and the per capita carbon emissions intensity, while the availability of subway systems exhibits a negative correlation with both the per capita public green space area and the carbon emissions intensity. Notably, the configuration intensity of urban bus systems manifests an inverted U-shaped relationship with residents’ carbon emissions intensity. Specifically, within a certain threshold, an escalation in the bus equipment intensity coincides with heightened carbon emission intensity; however, beyond this threshold, a notable reduction in the per capita carbon emissions intensity ensues. Additionally, a U-shaped relationship is observed between the number of urban parks and residents’ carbon emissions intensity, indicating that an increase in parks may not necessarily contribute to carbon reduction efforts. Moreover, a discernible synergy is observed among various factors influencing carbon reduction efforts. These factors encompass residents’ education levels and disposable incomes, the presence of subway and regular public transportation systems, urban land utilization scales, economic development levels, green space provisions, public transportation infrastructure, population densities, and land equilibrium. This interplay underscores the interconnectedness and interdependence of diverse variables in shaping strategies for mitigating carbon emissions within urban contexts.