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Forecast of Transportation CO 2 Emissions in Shanghai under Multiple Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Liping Zhu

    (College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China)

  • Zhizhong Li

    (College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China)

  • Xubiao Yang

    (College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China)

  • Yili Zhang

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China)

  • Hui Li

    (School of Management, Anshan Normal University Liaoning China, Anshan 114007, China)

Abstract

A reduction in CO 2 emissions from transportation is of great significance to achieve the goal of “peak carbon and carbon neutrality” in China. For 2003–2019, this paper calculates the transportation CO 2 emissions in Shanghai and constructs an extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model for forecasting. The result shows that from 2003 to 2019, total and per capita CO 2 emissions from Shanghai’s transportation sector increased, but the rate of growth decreased. Oil consumption was the main source of emissions, accounting for more than 92%. The study extended the STIRPAT model to analyze the driving factors for emissions. It shows that population size, passenger turnover, per capita GDP, transportation intensity, and energy intensity are positively correlated with emissions. Energy structure (the proportion of clean energy) has a negative impact, restraining growth. Under multiple scenarios, the forecast shows that Shanghai’s transportation sector can reach a CO 2 emissions peak before 2030. However, overgrowth of the transportation sector should be avoided. Progress in green and low-carbon technology is particularly important to achieve China’s peak carbon goal. Shanghai should actively build an efficient green transportation system, continue to optimize the transportation energy structure, and promote green and low-carbon travel for residents.

Suggested Citation

  • Liping Zhu & Zhizhong Li & Xubiao Yang & Yili Zhang & Hui Li, 2022. "Forecast of Transportation CO 2 Emissions in Shanghai under Multiple Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:20:p:13650-:d:949495
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    References listed on IDEAS

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