Predictive Modeling and Validation of Carbon Emissions from China’s Coastal Construction Industry: A BO-XGBoost Ensemble Approach

The extensive carbon emissions produced throughout the life cycle of buildings have significant impacts on environmental sustainability. Addressing the Carbon Emissions from China’s Construction Industry (CECI), this study uses panel data from seven coastal areas (2005–2020) and the Bayesian Optimization Extreme Gradient Boosting (BO-XGBoost) model to accurately predict carbon emissions. Initially, the carbon emission coefficient method is utilized to calculate the CECI. Subsequently, adopting the concept of a fixed-effects model to transform provincial differences into influencing factors, we employ a method combining Spearman rank correlation coefficients to filter out these influencing factors. Finally, the performance of the prediction model is validated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared ( R 2 ) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the total CECI for the seven provinces and cities increased from 3.1 billion tons in 2005 to 17.2 billion tons in 2020, with Shandong Province having the highest CECI and Hainan Province having the lowest. The total population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and floor space of the buildings completed passed the significance test, among a total of eight factors. These factors can be considered explanatory variables for the CECI prediction model. The BO-XGBoost algorithm demonstrates outstanding predictive performance, achieving an R 2 of 0.91. The proposed model enables potential decisions to quantitatively target the prominent factors contributing to the CECI. Its application can guide policymakers and decision makers toward implementing effective strategies for reducing carbon emissions, thereby fostering sustainable development in the construction industry.