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A hybrid neuro-fuzzy inference system-based algorithm for time series forecasting applied to energy consumption prediction

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  • Jallal, Mohammed Ali
  • González-Vidal, Aurora
  • Skarmeta, Antonio F.
  • Chabaa, Samira
  • Zeroual, Abdelouhab

Abstract

The accuracy of the prediction of buildings’ energy consumption is being tackled using existing artificial intelligence techniques. However, there is a lack of effort on the development of new techniques for solving that problem and, therefore, achieving higher performance, which is important for the efficient management of energy in many levels. This study addresses this gap by proposing a new hybrid machine learning algorithm that incorporates the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model with a new version of the firefly algorithm denominated as the gender-difference firefly algorithm. We expanded the search space diversification to increase the accuracy on the prediction and adopted the autoregressive process in order to approximate the chaotic behavior of the consumption time series. A new layer, denominated as non-working time adaptation was also integrated so as to decrease the fast variability of the predictions during non-working periods of time. We have applied our algorithm for the consumption prediction on 1 h, 2 h and 3 h ahead horizons. We have obtained improvements on the MAPE and R coefficient when compared with state-of-the-art publications in both a private dataset from the Faculty of Chemistry, located in the city of Murcia, Spain and a public dataset of the consumption of a Retail building located in California, United States. We also show our method’s performance in five more buildings. Our results demonstrate the robustness and the accuracy of our proposal when compared to the traditional adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system models and also to the different predictive techniques implemented in several pieces of literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Jallal, Mohammed Ali & González-Vidal, Aurora & Skarmeta, Antonio F. & Chabaa, Samira & Zeroual, Abdelouhab, 2020. "A hybrid neuro-fuzzy inference system-based algorithm for time series forecasting applied to energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:268:y:2020:i:c:s030626192030489x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114977
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    Cited by:

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    5. Sachin Kahawala & Daswin De Silva & Seppo Sierla & Damminda Alahakoon & Rashmika Nawaratne & Evgeny Osipov & Andrew Jennings & Valeriy Vyatkin, 2021. "Robust Multi-Step Predictor for Electricity Markets with Real-Time Pricing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    6. Peng, Jieyang & Kimmig, Andreas & Niu, Zhibin & Wang, Jiahai & Liu, Xiufeng & Ovtcharova, Jivka, 2021. "A flexible potential-flow model based high resolution spatiotemporal energy demand forecasting framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    7. Saidjon Shiralievich Tavarov & Pavel Matrenin & Murodbek Safaraliev & Mihail Senyuk & Svetlana Beryozkina & Inga Zicmane, 2023. "Forecasting of Electricity Consumption by Household Consumers Using Fuzzy Logic Based on the Development Plan of the Power System of the Republic of Tajikistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Yu, Yang & Wu, Shibo & Yu, Jianxing & Xu, Ya & Song, Lin & Xu, Weipeng, 2022. "A hybrid multi-criteria decision-making framework for offshore wind turbine selection: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    9. Tsao, Yu-Chung & Thanh, Vo-Van & Lu, Jye-Chyi, 2021. "Sustainable advanced distribution management system design considering differential pricing schemes and carbon emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
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