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Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: Insights from the Abruzzo Region, Central Italy

Author

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  • Vincenzo Guerriero

    (Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of L’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy)

  • Anna Rita Scorzini

    (Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of L’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy)

  • Bruno Di Lena

    (Abruzzo Region, Agriculture Directorate, Regional Agro-Meteorological Centre, Scerni, 66020 Chieti, Italy)

  • Stefano Iulianella

    (Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of L’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy)

  • Mario Di Bacco

    (Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of L’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy
    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Florence, 50139 Florence, Italy)

  • Marco Tallini

    (Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of L’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy)

Abstract

Climate change poses a major sustainability challenge, with potential far-reaching economic and social impacts, including fluctuations in agricultural yields and subsequent volatility in the availability and prices of essential food resources. In this study, we analyze the changes in climatic variables and agricultural yields for main crops cultivated in the Abruzzo Region (Central Italy), as well as their reciprocal correlation pattern in the time range, 1952–2014. Central Italy exhibits a well-developed agricultural sector and is characterized by a Mediterranean climate; given its proximity to the semi-arid and arid North African climate zone, such a region may be particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The analysis reveals an increase in drought intensity and persistence, starting from the 1980s, with a shift towards more temperate conditions in winter months and a transition to a warmer and more arid climate during the summer season. Moreover, the study identifies an overall increase in the correlation magnitude between crop yield fluctuations and climatic variables in the period 1983–2014 compared to that during the previous thirty-year time range. This finding can be interpreted as a change in the resilience (or increased vulnerability) of the agricultural production system to climate change. This work can be thus considered as an interesting case study in the Mediterranean region, offering valuable insights for constructing probabilistic models of fluctuations in agricultural production possibly induced by climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Guerriero & Anna Rita Scorzini & Bruno Di Lena & Stefano Iulianella & Mario Di Bacco & Marco Tallini, 2023. "Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: Insights from the Abruzzo Region, Central Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:19:p:14235-:d:1248150
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antonio Santo & Alessandra Ascione & Giuseppe Di Crescenzo & Enrico Miccadei & Tommaso Piacentini & Ettore Valente, 2014. "Tectonic-geomorphological map of the middle Aterno River valley (Abruzzo, Central Italy)," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 365-378, July.
    2. Taotao Chen & Guimin Xia & Tiegang Liu & Wei Chen & Daocai Chi, 2016. "Assessment of Drought Impact on Main Cereal Crops Using a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Liaoning Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Parsons, David J. & Rey, Dolores & Tanguy, Maliko & Holman, Ian P., 2019. "Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 119-129.
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    1. Ioannis M. Kourtis & Harris Vangelis & Dimitris Tigkas & Anna Mamara & Ioannis Nalbantis & George Tsakiris & Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis, 2023. "Drought Assessment in Greece Using SPI and ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.

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