IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i15p11923-d1209471.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Changes in Population Exposure to Precipitation Extremes over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration with Regional Climate Model RegCM4 on a Convection-Permitting Scale

Author

Listed:
  • Peihua Qin

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Zhenghui Xie

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Binghao Jia

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Rui Han

    (Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing 100081, China)

  • Buchun Liu

    (Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

In this study, we have investigated changes in precipitation extremes and the population’s exposure to these extremes during 2091–2099 in China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (JJJ) region relative to the historical period of 1991–1999. First, the regional climate model RegCM4, with a hydrostatic dynamic core, was run for east Asia, including China, at a 12 km resolution for 1990–1999 and 2090–2099. This model is forced by global climate model (GCM) MPI-ESM1.2-HR under the middle shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245). The first year was used as a model spinup. Then, the 12 km results were used to force RegCM4 with a non-hydrostatic dynamic core (RegcM4-NH) at a 3 km convection-permitting scale over the JJJ region during the historical and future periods. Future precipitation extremes were predicted to increase over the whole of China and its four subregions, while decreases were predicted over the JJJ region. This may partly be caused by lower increases in specific humidity over the JJJ region. The percentage contributions of the three components of total population exposure, i.e., changes in exposure due to changes in the population, precipitation extremes and the joint impact of the population and extremes, were then analyzed. Changes in the population and wet extremes were closely related to changes in the total exposure over the JJJ region. The population is the dominant factor that most impacts the total exposure to dry extremes. Finally, changes in future population exposure to precipitation extremes per degree of warming were quantified for the JJJ region.

Suggested Citation

  • Peihua Qin & Zhenghui Xie & Binghao Jia & Rui Han & Buchun Liu, 2023. "Predicting Changes in Population Exposure to Precipitation Extremes over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration with Regional Climate Model RegCM4 on a Convection-Permitting Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:15:p:11923-:d:1209471
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/15/11923/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/15/11923/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avantika Gori & Ning Lin & Dazhi Xi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Publisher Correction: Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(5), pages 491-491, May.
    2. Avantika Gori & Ning Lin & Dazhi Xi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 171-178, February.
    3. Bryan Jones & Claudia Tebaldi & Brian C. O’Neill & Keith Oleson & Jing Gao, 2018. "Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 423-437, February.
    4. Xuebin Zhang & Lisa Alexander & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Philip Jones & Albert Klein Tank & Thomas C. Peterson & Blair Trewin & Francis W. Zwiers, 2011. "Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(6), pages 851-870, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Zhenshan & Towe, Charles & He, Xi, 2025. "Heterogeneous flood zone effects on coastal housing prices - Risk signal and mandatory costs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. William G. Bennett & Harshinie Karunarathna & Yunqing Xuan & Muhammad S. B. Kusuma & Mohammad Farid & Arno A. Kuntoro & Harkunti P. Rahayu & Benedictus Kombaitan & Deni Septiadi & Tri N. A. Kesuma & R, 2023. "Modelling compound flooding: a case study from Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 277-305, August.
    3. Pavan Harika Raavi & Jung-Eun Chu & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Kevin J. E. Walsh, 2023. "Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Zhenshan Chen & Charles A. Towe, 2024. "Pricing Coastal Amenities and Flood Hazards," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 100(1), pages 109-126.
    5. Hong, Xu & Wan, Zhiqiang & Chen, Jianbing, 2023. "Parallel assessment of the tropical cyclone wind hazard at multiple locations using the probability density evolution method integrated with the change of probability measure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    6. Saeed Saviz Naeini & Reda Snaiki & Teng Wu, 2025. "Advancing spatio-temporal storm surge prediction with hierarchical deep neural networks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(14), pages 16317-16344, August.
    7. Young-Rock Hong & Haoran Chu & Zhigang Xie & Francis Dalisay, 2025. "Before Helene’s Landfall: Analysis of Disaster Risk Perceptions and Preparedness Assessment in the Southeastern United States in 2023," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 22(2), pages 1-12, January.
    8. Thomas R. Knutson & Joseph J. Sirutis & Morris A. Bender & Robert E. Tuleya & Benjamin A. Schenkel, 2022. "Dynamical downscaling projections of late twenty-first-century U.S. landfalling hurricane activity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-23, April.
    9. Ishraq Jerin & Amer Hamzah Jantan & Abu Bakar Abdul Hamid, 2024. "Adoption Intention of Technology in SMEs Conceptualizing and Framing the Adoption Intention of Next Level Technology in Food and Beverage Manufacturing SMES in Bangladesh," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(11), pages 3153-3173, November.
    10. Kui Xu & Chenyue Wang & Lingling Bin, 2023. "Compound flood models in coastal areas: a review of methods and uncertainty analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 469-496, March.
    11. Alam, Md. Shaharier & Kim, Kyusik & Horner, Mark W. & Alisan, Onur & Antwi, Richard & Ozguven, Eren Erman, 2024. "Large-scale modeling of hurricane flooding and disrupted infrastructure impacts on accessibility to critical facilities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    12. Hazem Krichene & Thomas Vogt & Franziska Piontek & Tobias Geiger & Christof Schötz & Christian Otto, 2023. "The social costs of tropical cyclones," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Binglin Zhang & Songbai Song & Huimin Wang & Tianli Guo & Yibo Ding, 2025. "Evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in simulating extreme precipitation and its projected changes in global climate regions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1737-1763, January.
    14. Yifeng Qin & Caihua Yang & Rositsa Beluhova-Uzunova & Dobri Dunchev & Boryana Ivanova & Peng Chen & Shengquan Che, 2025. "Impacts of Urbanization on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Trade-Offs and Synergies Among Climate-Related Ecosystem Services," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, September.
    15. Xing Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Wenxia Zhang & Liwen Ren & Jie Jiang & Shuai Hu & Meng Zuo & Lixia Zhang & Wenmin Man, 2023. "Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Anil Aryal & Jun Magome & Hiroshi Ishidaira & Kazuyoshi Souma & Umesh Chaudhary, 2025. "Evaluating the extreme precipitation indices and their impacts in the Volta River Basin in West Africa from a nexus perspective," Sustainability Nexus Forum, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, December.
    17. Helbling, Marc & Auer, Daniel & Meierrieks, Daniel & Mistry, Malcolm & Schaub, Max, 2021. "Climate change literacy and migration potential: micro-level evidence from Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 169(1-2), pages 1-1.
    18. Gareth J. Marshall & Kirsti Jylhä & Sonja Kivinen & Mikko Laapas & Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, 2020. "The role of atmospheric circulation patterns in driving recent changes in indices of extreme seasonal precipitation across Arctic Fennoscandia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 741-759, September.
    19. Fangjin Xu & Qingxu Huang & Huanbi Yue & Xingyun Feng & Haoran Xu & Chunyang He & Peng Yin & Brett A. Bryan, 2023. "The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Jing Gao & Melissa S. Bukovsky, 2023. "Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:15:p:11923-:d:1209471. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.