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The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China

Author

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  • Fangjin Xu

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University
    Peking University)

  • Qingxu Huang

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Huanbi Yue

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Xingyun Feng

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Haoran Xu

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Chunyang He

    (Beijing Normal University
    Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University
    Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education
    People’s Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University)

  • Peng Yin

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Brett A. Bryan

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

Estimating the health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of great significance for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 3.9 which aims to substantially reduce the deaths and illnesses from air pollution. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in deaths attributable to PM2.5 air pollution in China from 2000 to 2035 and examined the drivers. The results show that from 2019 to 2035, deaths were projected to decease 15.4% (6.6%–20.7%, 95% CI) and 8.4% (0.6%–13.5%) under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively, but increase 10.4% (5.1%–20.5%) and 18.1% (13.0%–28.3%) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Population aging will be the leading contributor to increased deaths attributable to PM2.5 air pollution, which will counter the positive gains achieved by improvements in air pollution and healthcare. Region-specific measures are required to mitigate the health burden of air pollution and this requires long-term efforts and mutual cooperation among regions in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Fangjin Xu & Qingxu Huang & Huanbi Yue & Xingyun Feng & Haoran Xu & Chunyang He & Peng Yin & Brett A. Bryan, 2023. "The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-40908-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40908-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huanbi Yue & Chunyang He & Qingxu Huang & Da Zhang & Peijun Shi & Enayat A. Moallemi & Fangjin Xu & Yang Yang & Xin Qi & Qun Ma & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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