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Climate-corrected modeling of biomass burning in Equatorial Asia: the roles of climate change and anthropogenic control

Author

Listed:
  • Shuai Yin

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Chong Shi

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Dabin Ji

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Huazhe Shang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Nan Li

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Zhongyi Sun

    (Hainan University)

  • Tangzhe Nie

    (Heilongjiang University)

  • Kunpeng Yi

    (Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Meng Guo

    (Northeast Normal University)

  • Xin Zhao

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Lan Wu

    (Hainan University)

  • Xinlu Liu

    (Hainan University)

Abstract

Biomass burning occurs perennially during the dry season in Equatorial Asia, causing ecological degradation, disrupting public activities, and impacting the health of millions of residents. This study introduces a novel climate-corrected model, integrating decomposition analysis and stepwise multiple linear regression, to assess the impact of climate condition and anthropogenic control on the interannual variability of biomass burning in Equatorial Asia. Using original satellite-based observations without climate correction, the result revealed that the number of active fire spots in the study region exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend (p > 0.05), with a yearly decrease rate of − 2272 (95% confidence interval, − 6490 to 1964) spots from 2003 to 2020. This statistically insignificant trend was primarily due to disturbance of the substantial increases in fire activities during El Niño years. However, after applying climate correction, the results demonstrated a significant mitigation of biomass burning intensity (p

Suggested Citation

  • Shuai Yin & Chong Shi & Dabin Ji & Huazhe Shang & Nan Li & Zhongyi Sun & Tangzhe Nie & Kunpeng Yi & Meng Guo & Xin Zhao & Lan Wu & Xinlu Liu, 2025. "Climate-corrected modeling of biomass burning in Equatorial Asia: the roles of climate change and anthropogenic control," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(9), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03996-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03996-3
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