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Application of a Novel Optimized Fractional Grey Holt-Winters Model in Energy Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Weijie Zhou

    (School of Wujinglian Economics, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China)

  • Huihui Tao

    (School of Wujinglian Economics, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China
    School of Business, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China)

  • Huimin Jiang

    (School of Wujinglian Economics, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China
    School of Business, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China)

Abstract

It is of great significance to be able to accurately predict the time series of energy data. In this paper, based on the seasonal and nonlinear characteristics of monthly and quarterly energy time series, a new optimized fractional grey Holt–Winters model (NOFGHW) is proposed to improve the identification of the model by integrating the processing methods of the two characteristics. The model consists of three parts. Firstly, a new fractional periodic accumulation operator is proposed, which preserves the periodic fluctuation of data after accumulation. Secondly, the new operator is introduced into the Holt–Winters model to describe the seasonality of the sequence. Finally, the LBFGS algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the model, which can deal with nonlinear characteristics in the sequence. Furthermore, in order to verify the superiority of the model in energy prediction, the new model is applied to two cases with different seasonal, different cycle, and different energy types, namely monthly crude oil production and quarterly industrial electricity consumption. The experimental results show that the new model can be used to predict monthly and quarterly energy time series, which is better than the OGHW, SNGBM, SARIMA, LSSVR, and BPNN models. Based on this, the new model demonstrates reliability in energy prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Weijie Zhou & Huihui Tao & Huimin Jiang, 2022. "Application of a Novel Optimized Fractional Grey Holt-Winters Model in Energy Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:5:p:3118-:d:765859
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yijue Sun & Fenglin Zhang, 2022. "Grey Multivariable Prediction Model of Energy Consumption with Different Fractional Orders," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-17, December.

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