IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i3p1141-d728836.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

High-Resolution Regional Climate Modeling and Projection of Heatwave Events over the Yangtze River Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Zhibo Gao

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xiaodong Yan

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

Heatwave events (HWEs) have strong impacts on human health, ecosystems, and sustainable social development. Using a gridded observation dataset and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), this study analyzed the characteristics of HWEs over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in eastern China during the historical period and projected the changes in HWEs over the YRB in the future. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax), long-lived (≥6 days) HWEs, and total (≥3 days) HWEs in the YRB all showed an obvious upward trend from 1981 to 2018, while the increase in short-lived (≥3 days and <6 days) HWEs was relatively moderate overall. The RCM of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can simulate the characteristics of Tmax and HWEs in the historical period very well, and the projection results showed that Tmax, total HWEs, and long-lived HWEs will all increase obviously in both the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Short-lived HWEs will also increase rapidly under SSP585, but they will rise slowly overall under SSP245. The changes in HWEs had distinct regional differences, and the intensity and coverage area of HWEs were greater under SSP585 overall. In the future, the increase in HWEs over the YRB region is likely to be associated with the enhancement of the western-Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and South-Asian high (SAH), and this enhancement was also greater under SSP585. The results from the high-resolution simulation of the RCM can provide an important reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhibo Gao & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "High-Resolution Regional Climate Modeling and Projection of Heatwave Events over the Yangtze River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1141-:d:728836
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1141/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1141/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ian Joughin & Waleed Abdalati & Mark Fahnestock, 2004. "Large fluctuations in speed on Greenland's Jakobshavn Isbræ glacier," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 608-610, December.
    2. Ying Sun & Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Lianchun Song & Hui Wan & Ting Hu & Hong Yin & Guoyu Ren, 2014. "Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1082-1085, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Hidalgo García & Julián Arco Díaz & Adelaida Martín Martín & Emilio Gómez Cobos, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Thermal Effects Caused by Heat Waves through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-24, September.
    2. David Hidalgo García, 2023. "Evaluation and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Main Mitigation Measures against Surface Urban Heat Islands in Different Local Climate Zones through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Zhang Wang & Kaiheng Hu & Zhengzheng Li & Changhu Li & Yao Li, 2023. "Calculation Method of Material Accumulation Rate at the Front of Trunk Glaciers Based on Satellite Monitoring," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Linze Li & Chengsheng Jiang & Raghu Murtugudde & Xin-Zhong Liang & Amir Sapkota, 2021. "Global Population Exposed to Extreme Events in the 150 Most Populated Cities of the World: Implications for Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-11, February.
    5. Meng, Fanchao & Zhang, Lei & Ren, Guoyu & Zhang, Ruixue, 2023. "Impacts of UHI on variations in cooling loads in buildings during heatwaves: A case study of Beijing and Tianjin, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    6. Guoyong Leng & Qiuhong Tang & Shengzhi Huang & Xuejun Zhang, 2016. "Extreme hot summers in China in the CMIP5 climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 669-681, April.
    7. Yuqing Zhang & Guangxiong Mao & Changchun Chen & Liucheng Shen & Binyu Xiao, 2021. "Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-28, September.
    8. Ali Ahmadalipour & Hamid Moradkhani & Mukesh Kumar, 2019. "Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 569-579, March.
    9. Dipu, Sudhakar & Quaas, Johannes & Quaas, Martin & Rickels, Wilfried & Mülmenstädt, Johannes & Boucher, Olivier, 2021. "Substantial Climate Response outside the Target Area in an Idealized Experiment of Regional Radiation Management," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 240193, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Kexin Zhang & Jiajia Luo & Jiaoting Peng & Hongchang Zhang & Yan Ji & Hong Wang, 2022. "Analysis of Extreme Temperature Variations on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Southwestern China over the Past 60 Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    11. Aglaé Jézéquel & Vivian Dépoues & Hélène Guillemot & Mélodie Trolliet & Jean-Paul Vanderlinden & Pascal Yiou, 2018. "Behind the veil of extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 367-383, August.
    12. Guo, Ying & Lu, Xiaoling & Zhang, Jiquan & Li, Kaiwei & Wang, Rui & Rong, Guangzhi & Liu, Xingpeng & Tong, Zhijun, 2022. "Joint analysis of drought and heat events during maize (Zea mays L.) growth periods using copula and cloud models: A case study of Songliao Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    13. Liao, Xiawei & Zhao, Xu & Jiang, Yu & Liu, Yu & Yi, Yujun & Tillotson, Martin R., 2019. "Water footprint of the energy sector in China’s two megalopolises," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 391(C), pages 9-15.
    14. Hain, Linda I. & Kölbel, Julian F. & Leippold, Markus, 2022. "Let’s get physical: Comparing metrics of physical climate risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    15. Chunxiang Li & Tianbao Zhao & Kairan Ying, 2017. "Quantifying the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcings to climate changes over arid-semiarid areas during 1946–2005," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 505-517, October.
    16. Vittal Hari & Subimal Ghosh & Wei Zhang & Rohini Kumar, 2022. "Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    17. Hung Chak Ho & Ka Ming Wai & Minhao He & Ta-Chien Chan & Chengbin Deng & Man Sing Wong, 2020. "Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 623-637, August.
    18. Xiaoying Xue & Guoyu Ren & Xiubao Sun & Panfeng Zhang & Yuyu Ren & Siqi Zhang & Chunyu Zhao & Xiujing Yu, 2021. "Change in mean and extreme temperature at Yingkou station in Northeast China from 1904 to 2017," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-20, February.
    19. Lei Jiang & Yongqin David Chen & Jianfeng Li & Cancan Liu, 2022. "Amplification of soil moisture deficit and high temperature in a drought-heatwave co-occurrence in southwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 641-660, March.
    20. Yeon-Hee Kim & Seung-Ki Min & Nathan P. Gillett & Dirk Notz & Elizaveta Malinina, 2023. "Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1141-:d:728836. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.