IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v103y2020i1d10.1007_s11069-020-04003-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy

Author

Listed:
  • Hung Chak Ho

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Ka Ming Wai

    (Shantou University)

  • Minhao He

    (Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Ta-Chien Chan

    (Academia Sinica)

  • Chengbin Deng

    (State University of New York at Binghamton)

  • Man Sing Wong

    (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
    The Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

Abstract

In this study, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting model to project 2050 urban and rural temperature. We applied a time-stratified analysis to compare it with mortality between 2001 and 2014 and between 2011 and 2014, to estimate the elevated risk of a 2050 heat event. We included change in daytime versus nighttime and urban versus rural temperatures as factors to project mortality, to evaluate the potential influence of climate change on mortality risk. Increases of 2.9 °C and 2.6 °C in maximum and minimum air temperature are projected in a 2050 heat event, with a day and a night that will have respective temperatures 9.8 °C and 4.9 °C higher than 2001–2014. Significantly higher mortality risk is forecasted in 2050 compared to 2001–2014 (IRR 1.721 [1.650, 1.796]) and 2011–2014 (IRR 1.622 [1.547, 1.701]) without consideration of temperature change. After consideration of changing temperature, change in maximum temperature in rural areas will induce the highest mortality risk during 2050, possibly due to rapid urbanization across the city, and with the second highest mortality risk induced by the change in minimum temperature in urbanized areas, possibly because local people in the city have been adapted to the maximum level of urban thermal stress during a summer day. Improvements to heat warning systems and sustainable planning protocols are urgently needed for climate change mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hung Chak Ho & Ka Ming Wai & Minhao He & Ta-Chien Chan & Chengbin Deng & Man Sing Wong, 2020. "Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 623-637, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04003-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04003-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04003-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04003-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald E. Stewart & Daniel Betancourt & James B. Davies & Deborah Harford & Yaheli Klein & Robert Lannigan & Linda Mortsch & Erin O’Connell & Kathy Tang & Paul H. Whitfield, 2017. "A multi-perspective examination of heat waves affecting Metro Vancouver: now into the future," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 791-815, June.
    2. Mahmoud AL-HADER & Ahmad RODZI, 2009. "The Smart City Infrastructure Development & Monitoring," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 4(2(11)), pages 87-94, May.
    3. Timothy Sim & Dongming Wang & Ziqiang Han, 2018. "Assessing the Disaster Resilience of Megacities: The Case of Hong Kong," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Hajat, S. & Sheridan, S.C. & Allen, M.J. & Pascal, M. & Laaidi, K. & Yagouti, A. & Bickis, U. & Tobias, A. & Bourque, D. & Armstrong, B.G. & Kosatsky, T., 2010. "Heat-health warning systems: A comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 100(6), pages 1137-1144.
    5. Do-Woo Kim & Ravinesh Deo & Jea-Hak Chung & Jong-Seol Lee, 2016. "Projection of heat wave mortality related to climate change in Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 623-637, January.
    6. Ying Sun & Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Lianchun Song & Hui Wan & Ting Hu & Hong Yin & Guoyu Ren, 2014. "Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1082-1085, December.
    7. Kosatsky, T. & Henderson, S.B. & Pollock, S.L., 2012. "Shifts in mortality during a hot weather event in Vancouver, British columbia: Rapid assessment with case-only analysis," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(12), pages 2367-2371.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Hidalgo García, 2023. "Evaluation and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Main Mitigation Measures against Surface Urban Heat Islands in Different Local Climate Zones through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Lucia Cellucci & Chiara Burattini & Dionysia Drakou & Franco Gugliermetti & Fabio Bisegna & Andrea De Lieto Vollaro & Ferdinando Salata & Iacopo Golasi, 2015. "Urban Lighting Project for a Small Town: Comparing Citizens and Authority Benefits," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Ghasem Toloo & Gerard FitzGerald & Peter Aitken & Kenneth Verrall & Shilu Tong, 2013. "Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems: systematic review of epidemiological evidence," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 58(5), pages 667-681, October.
    4. McKenzie H. Tilstra & Ishwar Tiwari & Leigh Niwa & Sandra Campbell & Charlene C. Nielsen & C. Allyson Jones & Alvaro Osornio Vargas & Okan Bulut & Bernadette Quemerais & Jordana Salma & Kyle Whitfield, 2021. "Risk and Resilience: How Is the Health of Older Adults and Immigrant People Living in Canada Impacted by Climate- and Air Pollution-Related Exposures?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Linze Li & Chengsheng Jiang & Raghu Murtugudde & Xin-Zhong Liang & Amir Sapkota, 2021. "Global Population Exposed to Extreme Events in the 150 Most Populated Cities of the World: Implications for Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-11, February.
    6. Meng, Fanchao & Zhang, Lei & Ren, Guoyu & Zhang, Ruixue, 2023. "Impacts of UHI on variations in cooling loads in buildings during heatwaves: A case study of Beijing and Tianjin, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    7. Mazdak Irani & Saeed Banihashemi, 2022. "Impact of Knowledge, Tendency and Perceived Threats of Climate Change on Adaptation Strategies: The Case of Tehran Architects," Energy and Environment Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, June.
    8. Yuqing Zhang & Guangxiong Mao & Changchun Chen & Liucheng Shen & Binyu Xiao, 2021. "Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-28, September.
    9. Liang Zhao & Fanneng He & Caishan Zhao, 2020. "A Framework of Resilience Development for Poor Villages after the Wenchuan Earthquake Based on the Principle of “Build Back Better”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-25, June.
    10. Zhibo Gao & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "High-Resolution Regional Climate Modeling and Projection of Heatwave Events over the Yangtze River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-13, January.
    11. Alisa L. Hass & Kelsey N. Ellis & Lisa Reyes Mason & Jon M. Hathaway & David A. Howe, 2016. "Heat and Humidity in the City: Neighborhood Heat Index Variability in a Mid-Sized City in the Southeastern United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    12. Kexin Zhang & Jiajia Luo & Jiaoting Peng & Hongchang Zhang & Yan Ji & Hong Wang, 2022. "Analysis of Extreme Temperature Variations on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Southwestern China over the Past 60 Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    13. Jae Young Lee & Woo-Seop Lee & Kristie L. Ebi & Ho Kim, 2019. "Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-9, March.
    14. Ronald E. Stewart & Daniel Betancourt & James B. Davies & Deborah Harford & Yaheli Klein & Robert Lannigan & Linda Mortsch & Erin O’Connell & Kathy Tang & Paul H. Whitfield, 2017. "A multi-perspective examination of heat waves affecting Metro Vancouver: now into the future," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 791-815, June.
    15. Vittal Hari & Subimal Ghosh & Wei Zhang & Rohini Kumar, 2022. "Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Osvaldo Fonseca-Rodríguez & Erling Häggström Lundevaller & Scott C. Sheridan & Barbara Schumann, 2019. "Association between Weather Types based on the Spatial Synoptic Classification and All-Cause Mortality in Sweden, 1991–2014," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-12, May.
    17. Lin Zhou & Zheng Xin & Li Bai & Fangjun Wan & Yongming Wang & Shaowei Sang & Shouqin Liu & Ji Zhang & Qiyong Liu, 2014. "Perceptions of Heat Risk to Health: A Qualitative Study of Professional Bus Drivers and Their Managers in Jinan, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    18. Chae Yeon Park & Dong Kun Lee & Jung Hee Hyun, 2019. "The Effects of Extreme Heat Adaptation Strategies under Different Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios in Seoul, Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-13, July.
    19. Ye, Bin & Jiang, Jingjing & Liu, Junguo & Zheng, Yi & Zhou, Nan, 2021. "Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    20. Ran Wang & Yao Jiang & Peng Su & Jing’ai Wang, 2019. "Global Spatial Distributions of and Trends in Rice Exposure to High Temperature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-53, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04003-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.