IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i24p16823-d1004082.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling and Forecast of Future Growth for Shandong’s Small Industrial Towns: A Scenario-Based Interactive Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Yang

    (School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China)

  • Chunlu Liu

    (School of Architecture and Built Environment, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC 3216, Australia)

  • Baizhen Li

    (School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China)

  • Jilong Zhao

    (School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China)

Abstract

The industrial small-town development process in Shandong is influenced by the urban agglomeration strategy and the regional collaborative production, thereby resulting in a challenge of growth boundary planning. How to build a growth forecast decision support system to help small industrial towns maintain sustainable development with limited trial and error costs is an essential topic in the current research of small town-related fields. Empirical analysis reveals that the growth factors of small towns differ from the factors of cities due to the other-organization planning management system and self-organization construction activities that coexist in small towns. Besides, due to the size of small towns, the impact of policy changes in small towns is more significant than in cities. Furthermore, as part of the regional production chain, small industrial towns are most vulnerable to uncertain external disturbances. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate different development scenarios according to possible disturbances and output corresponding development forecasts. The research aims to build a decision-making support system for Shandong’s small-town planning based on an urban modeling approach using geographic information technology and scenario planning. Considering the mutually driving effects of the objective environment and subjective policies of Shandong’s industrial towns, as well as the corresponding dynamic mechanisms and comparing the theoretical basis and limitations of the different modeling approaches, this essay constructs a model system based on a mathematical model and a system dynamics model. It is also an interactive model accompanied by applicable rules and factors so that initial information and relevant development goals can be inputted into the model system to simulate the influence of different policies and identify the small industrial town growth scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Yang & Chunlu Liu & Baizhen Li & Jilong Zhao, 2022. "Modelling and Forecast of Future Growth for Shandong’s Small Industrial Towns: A Scenario-Based Interactive Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:24:p:16823-:d:1004082
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/24/16823/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/24/16823/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Alonso & Andrés Monzón & Yang Wang, 2017. "Modelling Land Use and Transport Policies to Measure Their Contribution to Urban Challenges: The Case of Madrid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Elvira Ismagilova & Laurie Hughes & Nripendra P. Rana & Yogesh K. Dwivedi, 2022. "Security, Privacy and Risks Within Smart Cities: Literature Review and Development of a Smart City Interaction Framework," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 393-414, April.
    3. Luis Bettencourt & Geoffrey West, 2010. "A unified theory of urban living," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7318), pages 912-913, October.
    4. Carmen Díez Medina, 2013. "Die Stadt im 20. Jahrhundert. Visionen, Entwürfe, Gebautes," Planning Perspectives, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 659-660, October.
    5. Robert B. Cervero, 2013. "Linking urban transport and land use in developing countries," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 6(1), pages 7-24.
    6. Patrick Schirmer & Michael van Eggermond & Kay Axhausen, 2014. "The role of location in residential location choice models: a review of literature," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(2), pages 3-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jilong Zhao & Xinran Hao & Yang Yang, 2023. "Research on Urban Sustainability Indicators Based on Urban Grain: A Case Study in Jinan, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-22, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saul Estrin & Yuan Hu & Daniel Shapiro & Peng Zhang, 2024. "Agglomeration costs limit sustainable innovation in cities in developing economies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(11), pages 1-24, November.
    2. Chetan Doddamani & M. Manoj, 2023. "Analysis of the influences of built environment measures on household car and motorcycle ownership decisions in Hubli-Dharwad cities," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 205-243, February.
    3. Huang, Siyu & Shi, Yi & Chen, Qinghua & Li, Xiaomeng, 2022. "The growth path of high-tech industries: Statistical laws and evolution demands," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    4. Cavoli, Clemence, 2021. "Accelerating sustainable mobility and land-use transitions in rapidly growing cities: Identifying common patterns and enabling factors," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Joao Meirelles & Camilo Rodrigues Neto & Fernando Fagundes Ferreira & Fabiano Lemes Ribeiro & Claudia Rebeca Binder, 2018. "Evolution of urban scaling: Evidence from Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-15, October.
    6. Thi Mai Chi Nguyen & Hironori Kato & Le Binh Phan, 2020. "Is Built Environment Associated with Travel Mode Choice in Developing Cities? Evidence from Hanoi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
    7. A. Haven Kiers & Billy Krimmel & Caroline Larsen-Bircher & Kate Hayes & Ash Zemenick & Julia Michaels, 2022. "Different Jargon, Same Goals: Collaborations between Landscape Architects and Ecologists to Maximize Biodiversity in Urban Lawn Conversions," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, September.
    8. Varga, Levente & Tóth, Géza & Néda, Zoltán, 2017. "An improved radiation model and its applicability for understanding commuting patterns in Hungary," MPRA Paper 76806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Abdi, Mohammad Hamed, 2021. "What the newcomers to transit-oriented development are confronted with? Evidence from Iranian policy and planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Brinkley, Catherine & Raj, Subhashni, 2022. "Perfusion and urban thickness: The shape of cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Antczak-Stępniak Agata, 2020. "Location tendencies in developer investments in the residential market in Łódź," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 47(47), pages 133-144, March.
    12. Sebastián Bustos & Charles Gomez & Ricardo Hausmann & César A Hidalgo, 2012. "The Dynamics of Nestedness Predicts the Evolution of Industrial Ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-8, November.
    13. Peña, Guillermo & Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Ramos, Arturo & Sanz-Gracia, Fernando, 2022. "Log-growth rates of CO2: An empirical analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    14. Ermal Shpuza, 2017. "Relative size measures of urban form based on allometric subtraction," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 44(1), pages 141-159, January.
    15. Ione Avila-Palencia & Brisa N. Sánchez & Daniel A. Rodríguez & Carolina Perez-Ferrer & J. Jaime Miranda & Nelson Gouveia & Usama Bilal & Andrés F. Useche & Maria A. Wilches-Mogollon & Kari Moore & Olg, 2022. "Health and Environmental Co-Benefits of City Urban Form in Latin America: An Ecological Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    16. Y Nguyen CAO, 2021. "Factors Affecting On Urban Location Choice Decisions Of Enterprises," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 217-224, June.
    17. Mohammad Hamed Abdi & Ali Soltani, 2022. "Which Fabric/Scale Is Better for Transit-Oriented Urban Design: Case Studies in a Developing Country," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-22, June.
    18. Xu, Gang & Xu, Zhibang & Gu, Yanyan & Lei, Weiqian & Pan, Yupiao & Liu, Jie & Jiao, Limin, 2020. "Scaling laws in intra-urban systems and over time at the district level in Shanghai, China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    19. Bautista-Hernández, Dorian Antonio & Trejo Nieto, Alejandra, 2024. "Who uses transit in the journey to work? Multimodality, equity, and planning implications in México City," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    20. Bluhm, Richard & Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Parks, Bradley C. & Strange, Austin M. & Tierney, Michael J., 2025. "Connective financing: Chinese infrastructure projects and the diffusion of economic activity in developing countries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:24:p:16823-:d:1004082. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.