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Transformative Change Needs Direction

Author

Listed:
  • Sander Jacobs

    (Research Team Nature and Society, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
    Belgian Biodiversity Platform BBPF, WTC III, Boulevard Simon Bolivar 30, 1000 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Fernando Santos-Martín

    (Departamento Tecnología Química y Ambiental, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, 28933 Madrid, Spain)

  • Eeva Primmer

    (Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, 00790 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Fanny Boeraeve

    (Département GxABT, Biodiversité et Paysage, Université de Liège-Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, 5030 Gembloux, Belgium)

  • Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez

    (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Vânia Proença

    (Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Martin Schlaepfer

    (enviroSPACE Laboratory, Université de Genève, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland)

  • Lluis Brotons

    (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Robert Dunford

    (UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford LL57 2UW, UK)

  • Sandra Lavorel

    (Alpine Ecology Laboratory, French National Centre for Scientific Research CNRS, 38610 Grenoble, France)

  • Antoine Guisan

    (Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland)

  • Joachim Claudet

    (French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), 38610 Paris, France)

  • Zuzana V. Harmáčková

    (Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Inge Liekens

    (Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek VITO, 2400 Mol, Belgium)

  • Jennifer Hauck

    (CoKnow, 04838 Jesewitz, Germany)

  • Kasper Kok

    (Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research WUR, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands)

  • Yves Zinngrebe

    (Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung UFZ, 04318 Leipzig, Germany)

  • Simona Pedde

    (Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research WUR, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands)

  • Bálint Czúcz

    (MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary)

  • Cosimo Solidoro

    (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, 34010 Sgonico, Italy)

  • Matthew Cantele

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Christian Rixen

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland)

  • Anna Heck

    (Research Team Nature and Society, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
    Belgian Biodiversity Platform BBPF, WTC III, Boulevard Simon Bolivar 30, 1000 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Jomme Desair

    (Research Team Nature and Society, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, 1000 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Tobias Plieninger

    (Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany)

  • Paula A. Harrison

    (UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK)

Abstract

Comparing the impacts of future scenarios is essential for developing and guiding the political sustainability agenda. This review-based analysis compares six IPBES scenarios for their impacts on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 20 biodiversity targets (Aichi targets) for the Europe and Central Asia regions. The comparison is based on a review of 143 modeled scenarios synthesized in a plural cost–benefit approach which provides the distances to multiple policy goals. We confirm and substantiate the claim that transformative change is vital but also point out which directions for political transformation are to be preferred. The hopeful message is that large societal losses might still be avoided, and multiple benefits can be generated over the coming decades and centuries. Yet, policies will need to strongly steer away from scenarios based on regional competition, inequality, and economic optimism.

Suggested Citation

  • Sander Jacobs & Fernando Santos-Martín & Eeva Primmer & Fanny Boeraeve & Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez & Vânia Proença & Martin Schlaepfer & Lluis Brotons & Robert Dunford & Sandra Lavorel & Antoine Guisan , 2022. "Transformative Change Needs Direction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-9, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:22:p:14844-:d:969118
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kivimaa, Paula & Kern, Florian, 2016. "Creative destruction or mere niche support? Innovation policy mixes for sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 205-217.
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    3. Dexter V. L. Hunt & D. Rachel Lombardi & Stuart Atkinson & Austin R. G. Barber & Matthew Barnes & Christopher T. Boyko & Julie Brown & John Bryson & David Butler & Silvio Caputo & Maria Caserio & Rich, 2012. "Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-33, April.
    4. Bouwma, Irene & Schleyer, Christian & Primmer, Eeva & Winkler, Klara Johanna & Berry, Pam & Young, Juliette & Carmen, Esther & Špulerová, Jana & Bezák, Peter & Preda, Elena & Vadineanu, Angheluta, 2018. "Adoption of the ecosystem services concept in EU policies," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 29(PB), pages 213-222.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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