IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i19p12910-d937783.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario Simulation for the Urban Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model in Shanghai, China

Author

Listed:
  • Wenlong Yu

    (School of Civil Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Ji’nan 250307, China)

  • Tianhui Tao

    (College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China)

Abstract

Shanghai, as an international metropolis, has an ever-growing population and ongoing economic development, so the pressure on the natural resources and the environment is continually increased. How to ease the tension among economy, resources and the environment? The sustainable green development of Shanghai has been the focus of the public and the government. Urban carrying capacity involves complex interactions among population, the economy and the environment. Understanding the balance between these elements is an important scientific issue for sustainable green development in Shanghai. For this purpose, the balance between urban development and ecological resources was emphasized, and population carrying capacity, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), green ecological index and added value of secondary industry were investigated to measure urban carrying capacity. The dynamic changes of the carrying population, GDP, green ecological index and the added value of the secondary industry in Shanghai during 2018–2035 were simulated using a system dynamics model including three subsystems and 66 variables from a macroscopic perspective. Five development scenarios were employed during the simulation, namely a status-quo scenario, an economic-centric scenario, a high-tech-centric scenario, an environment-centric scenario and a coordinated equilibrium scenario. The simulation results indicated that the potential of carrying population will decline by 2035, and the economic and ecological indicators will also be at a low level under the status-quo scenario, which is an inferior option, while the under coordinated equilibrium scenario, the ecological environment, population growth and economic development will all perform excellently, which is the best option. Therefore, the urban carrying capacity of population, economy and resources in Shanghai may be improved by increasing investment in scientific research, increasing the expenditure on environmental protection and improving the recycling efficiency of waste solid and water. The results provide insights into the urban carrying capacity of Shanghai city.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenlong Yu & Tianhui Tao, 2022. "Scenario Simulation for the Urban Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:19:p:12910-:d:937783
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/19/12910/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/19/12910/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang Tang & Yongbo Yuan & Qingyu Zhong, 2021. "Evaluation of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity and Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Shoufu Lin & Ji Sun & Dora Marinova & Dingtao Zhao, 2017. "Effects of Population and Land Urbanization on China’s Environmental Impact: Empirical Analysis Based on the Extended STIRPAT Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Yingying Zhang & Yigang Wei & Jian Zhang, 2021. "Overpopulation and urban sustainable development—population carrying capacity in Shanghai based on probability-satisfaction evaluation method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3318-3337, March.
    4. Haijun Bao & Chengcheng Wang & Lu Han & Shaohua Wu & Liming Lou & Baogen Xu & Yanfang Liu, 2020. "Resources and Environmental Pressure, Carrying Capacity, And Governance: A Case Study of Yangtze River Economic Belt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Xiao-meng Song & Fan-zhe Kong & Che-sheng Zhan, 2011. "Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tianjin City of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(3), pages 857-873, February.
    6. Changping Zhao & Mengru Liu & Huanzheng Du & Yu Gong, 2021. "The Evolutionary Trend and Impact of Global Plastic Waste Trade Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, March.
    7. Wang, Delu & Ma, Gang & Song, Xuefeng & Liu, Yun, 2017. "Energy price slump and policy response in the coal-chemical industry district: A case study of Ordos with a system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 325-339.
    8. Xu, Mengmeng & Tan, Ruipeng, 2021. "Removing energy allocation distortion to increase economic output and energy efficiency in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. Hui Zou & Xiaohua Ma, 2021. "Identifying resource and environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China: the perspectives of spatial differences and sustainable development," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14775-14798, October.
    10. Xiaoyan Wu, 2022. "An ecological environmental carrying capacity estimation of tourist attractions based on structural equation," International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 25(4), pages 310-323.
    11. Barati, Ali Akbar & Azadi, Hossein & Scheffran, Jürgen, 2019. "A system dynamics model of smart groundwater governance," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 502-518.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jianming Xu & Qinfei Yu & Xiaoyang Hou, 2023. "Sustainability Assessment of Steel Industry in the Belt and Road Area Based on DPSIR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Xiaoyan Bu & Xiaomin Wang & Jiarui Wang & Ge Shi, 2023. "A Study on Resource Carrying Capacity and Early Warning of Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin Based on Sustainable Development Goals, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-20, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hossein Karami & Romina Sayahnia & Hossein Mahmoudi & Hossein Azadi & Sadegh Salehi, 2023. "Spatial analysis of resources and environmental carrying capacity in Iran," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 60-86, February.
    2. Xiang Shi & Xiao Yu & Shijun Wang & Feilong Hao, 2023. "Influence of Intercity Network on Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity: A Perspective of Population Flow," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Zhimin Zhang & Guoli Ou & Ayman Elshkaki & Ruilin Liu, 2022. "Evaluation of Regional Carrying Capacity under Economic-Social-Resource-Environment Complex System: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Mingjing Guo & Ziyu Jiang & Yan Bu & Jinhua Cheng, 2019. "Supporting Sustainable Development of Water Resources: A Social Welfare Maximization Game Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-15, August.
    5. Zamani, Omid & Azadi, Hossein & Mortazavi, Seyed Abolghasem & Balali, Hamid & Moghaddam, Saghi Movahhed & Jurik, Lubos, 2021. "The impact of water-pricing policies on water productivity: Evidence of agriculture sector in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    6. Jun Liu & Yu Qian & Huihong Chang & Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest, 2022. "The Impact of Technology Innovation on Enterprise Capacity Utilization—Evidence from China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-17, September.
    7. Yang, Qing & Zhang, Lei & Zhang, Jinsuo & Zou, Shaohui, 2021. "System simulation and policy optimization of China's coal production capacity deviation in terms of the economy, environment, and energy security," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. P. Sikandar & E. Christen, 2012. "Geoelectrical Sounding for the Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity of Alluvial Aquifers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(5), pages 1201-1215, March.
    9. Maryam Yazdanparast & Mehdi Ghorbani & Ali Salajegheh & Reza Kerachian, 2023. "Development of a Water Security Conceptual Model by Combining Human-Environmental System (HES) and System Dynamic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(4), pages 1695-1709, March.
    10. Yansong Zhang & Yujie Wei & Yu Mao, 2023. "Sustainability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in China Based on DPSIR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    11. Yuxin Meng & Lu Liu & Jianlong Wang & Qiying Ran & Xiaodong Yang & Jianliang Shen, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of the National Sustainable Development Planning of Resource-Based Cities Policy on Pollution Emission Intensity: Evidence from 270 Prefecture-Level Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-20, June.
    12. Kaize Zhang & Juqin Shen & Ran He & Bihang Fan & Han Han, 2019. "Dynamic Analysis of the Coupling Coordination Relationship between Urbanization and Water Resource Security and Its Obstacle Factor," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-16, November.
    13. Wei-Ling Hsu & Xijuan Shen & Haiying Xu & Chunmei Zhang & Hsin-Lung Liu & Yan-Chyuan Shiau, 2021. "Integrated Evaluations of Resource and Environment Carrying Capacity of the Huaihe River Ecological and Economic Belt in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, October.
    14. Tianlin Zhai & Jing Wang & Ying Fang & Jingjing Liu & Longyang Huang & Kun Chen & Chenchen Zhao, 2021. "Identification and Prediction of Wetland Ecological Risk in Key Cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt: From the Perspective of Land Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, January.
    15. Qianjin Dong & Xu Zhang & Yalin Chen & Debin Fang, 2019. "Dynamic Management of a Water Resources-Socioeconomic-Environmental System Based on Feedbacks Using System Dynamics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 2093-2108, April.
    16. Benabderrazik, K. & Kopainsky, B. & Tazi, L. & Joerin, J. & Six, J., 2021. "Agricultural intensification can no longer ignore water conservation – A systemic modelling approach to the case of tomato producers in Morocco," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    17. Najihah Dor & Syafalni Syafalni & Ismail Abustan & Mohd Rahman & Mohd Nazri & Roslanzairi Mostafa & Lakam Mejus, 2011. "Verification of Surface-Groundwater Connectivity in an Irrigation Canal Using Geophysical, Water Balance and Stable Isotope Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(11), pages 2837-2853, September.
    18. Tan, Kun & Zhao, Xiaoqing & Pu, Junwei & Li, Sinan & Li, Yuhao & Miao, Peipei & Wang, Qian, 2021. "Zoning regulation and development model for water and land resources in the Karst Mountainous Region of Southwest China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Daming Li & Canyao Liu & Yu Shi & Jiaming Song & Yiliang Zhang, 2022. "Trade Flow Optimization Model for Plastic Pollution Reduction," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-18, November.
    20. Wang, Delu & Wan, Kaidi & Song, Xuefeng, 2020. "Understanding coal miners’ livelihood vulnerability to declining coal demand: Negative impact and coping strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:19:p:12910-:d:937783. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.