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Risk Control in Optimization of Cascade Hydropower: Considering Water Abandonment Risk Probability

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  • Xinyi Zhang

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Guohua Fang

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Jian Ye

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Jin Liu

    (Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design Institute (Group) Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200092, China)

  • Xin Wen

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Chengjun Wu

    (Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003, China)

Abstract

Water abandonment risk caused by inflow uncertainties is a major problem in cascade hydropower generation operation and water resources management. In this study, we propose a theoretical estimation method (TEM) to calculate water abandonment risk probability (WARP) utilizing sample inflow data and historical forecast errors. The method analyzes the differences in risk quantification between the head hydropower station and downstream stations, and the corresponding probability formula is provided. Then, a short-term optimal operation model of cascade hydropower stations considering the additional WARP water level constraints is constructed to dynamically control water level risk. The Dahuashui (DHS)-Geliqiao (GLQ) cascade hydropower stations in the Wujiang River Basin of China is investigated as a case study. The results show that compared with the historical scheme, the total amount of water abandonment of DHS, GLQ and DHS-GLQ in the WARP optimal scheme decreases by 11.69%, 47.69% and 28.27%, respectively, and the flood peak of GLQ is reduced by 21.6%. In conclusion, compared with the traditional control approach and actual operation processes, the proposed risk control in optimization of cascade hydropower considering WARP can improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of cascade hydropower systems by reducing the occurrence of water abandonment and thereby increase generation profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinyi Zhang & Guohua Fang & Jian Ye & Jin Liu & Xin Wen & Chengjun Wu, 2022. "Risk Control in Optimization of Cascade Hydropower: Considering Water Abandonment Risk Probability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:17:p:10911-:d:903492
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qiao-feng Tan & Guo-hua Fang & Xin Wen & Xiao-hui Lei & Xu Wang & Chao Wang & Yi Ji, 2020. "Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Hydropower Generation Operation Based on Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1589-1607, March.
    2. Tan, Qiaofeng & Wen, Xin & Sun, Yuanliang & Lei, Xiaohui & Wang, Zhenni & Qin, Guanghua, 2021. "Evaluation of the risk and benefit of the complementary operation of the large wind-photovoltaic-hydropower system considering forecast uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    3. Liu Yuan & Jianzhong Zhou, 2017. "Self-Optimization System Dynamics Simulation of Real-Time Short Term Cascade Hydropower System Considering Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(7), pages 2127-2140, May.
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