IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i8p2207-d222251.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the Driving Forces of Urban Expansion Based on a Modified Logistic Regression Model: A Case Study of Wuhan City, Central China

Author

Listed:
  • Ti Luo

    (College of Economics and Management, Hunan Institute of Science and Technology, Yueyang 414006, China)

  • Ronghui Tan

    (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Xuesong Kong

    (School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Jincheng Zhou

    (College of Economics and Management, Hunan Institute of Science and Technology, Yueyang 414006, China)

Abstract

Urban development policies and planning schemes are essential drivers of urban expansion in the contemporary world. However, they are usually investigated by qualitative analysis and it is difficult to use them in spatial analysis models. Within the advancement of technology regarding the geostatistical dataset, this study uses a field strength model to quantify policy-oriented factors and designs a modified logistic regression model to analyze the main drivers of urban expansion by selecting natural environment, socioeconomic development, and especially policy-oriented variables. Wuhan City in central China is taken as an example: the modified model is applied and compared with the classical model, and the driving mechanism of urban expansion in Wuhan from 2006 to 2013 is determined through spatial analysis. The results show that the urban system planning in combination with various anthropologic and environmental factors can be comprehensively quantified and described by the urban field strength. The methodological innovation of the classical logistic regression model is tested by statistical and spatial analysis methods, and the results verify that the modified regression model can be used more accurately to investigate the driving mechanism of urban expansion in the past and simulate the spatial pattern of urban evolution in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Ti Luo & Ronghui Tan & Xuesong Kong & Jincheng Zhou, 2019. "Analysis of the Driving Forces of Urban Expansion Based on a Modified Logistic Regression Model: A Case Study of Wuhan City, Central China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:8:p:2207-:d:222251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/8/2207/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/8/2207/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bo Sun & Derek T. Robinson, 2018. "Comparison of Statistical Approaches for Modelling Land-Use Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-33, November.
    2. Taher Osman & Prasanna Divigalpitiya & Takafumi Arima, 2016. "Driving factors of urban sprawl in Giza governorate of the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Region using a logistic regression model," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 206-225, July.
    3. Karen C Seto & Michail Fragkias & Burak Güneralp & Michael K Reilly, 2011. "A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(8), pages 1-9, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yue Wu & Zexu Han & Auwalu Faisal Koko & Siyuan Zhang & Nan Ding & Jiayang Luo, 2022. "Analyzing the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Land Use Expansion and Its Influencing Factors in Zhejiang Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Yanwei Zhang & Hualin Xie, 2019. "Interactive Relationship among Urban Expansion, Economic Development, and Population Growth since the Reform and Opening up in China: An Analysis Based on a Vector Error Correction Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-31, October.
    3. Lili Zhang & Yi Miao & Haoxuan Wei & Teqi Dai, 2023. "Ecological Impacts Associated with the Qinghai–Tibet Railway and Its Influencing Factors: A Comparison Study on Diversified Research Units," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Druga, Michal & Minár, Jozef, 2023. "Cost distance and potential accessibility as alternative spatial approximators of human influence in LUCC modelling," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Xinxin Huang & Gang Xu & Fengtao Xiao, 2021. "Optimization of a Novel Urban Growth Simulation Model Integrating an Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm and Cellular Automata for a Smart City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-25, February.
    6. Ru Chen & Chunbo Huang, 2021. "Landscape Evolution and It’s Impact of Ecosystem Service Value of the Wuhan City, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Lin Meng & Wentao Si, 2022. "The Driving Mechanism of Urban Land Expansion from 2005 to 2018: The Case of Yangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-14, November.
    8. Kai Li & Zhili Ma & Jinjin Liu, 2019. "A New Trend in the Space–Time Distribution of Cultivated Land Occupation for Construction in China and the Impact of Population Urbanization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-23, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Xinhai & Chen, Danling & Kuang, Bing & Zhang, Chaozheng & Cheng, Chen, 2020. "Is high-tech zone a policy trap or a growth drive? Insights from the perspective of urban land use efficiency," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Susca, T. & Zanghirella, F. & Colasuonno, L. & Del Fatto, V., 2022. "Effect of green wall installation on urban heat island and building energy use: A climate-informed systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Zhiyuan Ma & Xuejun Duan & Lei Wang & Yazhu Wang & Jiayu Kang & Ruxian Yun, 2023. "A Scenario Simulation Study on the Impact of Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Carbon Storage in the Yangtze River Delta, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Wu, Ye & Tao, Yu & Yang, Guishan & Ou, Weixin & Pueppke, Steven & Sun, Xiao & Chen, Gongtai & Tao, Qin, 2019. "Impact of land use change on multiple ecosystem services in the rapidly urbanizing Kunshan City of China: Past trajectories and future projections," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 419-427.
    5. Ke Huang & Martin Dallimer & Lindsay C. Stringer & Anlu Zhang & Ting Zhang, 2021. "Does Economic Agglomeration Lead to Efficient Rural to Urban Land Conversion? An Examination of China’s Metropolitan Area Development Strategy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Tao Lin & Yunjun Yu & Xuemei Bai & Ling Feng & Jin Wang, 2013. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accounting of Urban Residential Consumption: A Household Survey Based Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-12, February.
    7. Kukkonen, M.O. & Khamis, M. & Muhammad, M.J. & Käyhkö, N. & Luoto, M., 2022. "Modeling direct above-ground carbon loss due to urban expansion in Zanzibar City Region, Tanzania," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    8. Kukkonen, Markus O. & Muhammad, Muhammad J. & Käyhkö, Niina & Luoto, Miska, 2018. "Urban expansion in Zanzibar City, Tanzania: Analyzing quantity, spatial patterns and effects of alternative planning approaches," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 554-565.
    9. Maria Mrówczyńska & Małgorzata Sztubecka & Marta Skiba & Anna Bazan-Krzywoszańska & Przemysław Bejga, 2019. "The Use of Artificial Intelligence as a Tool Supporting Sustainable Development Local Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-17, August.
    10. Abdelkader, Mahmood & Sliuzas, Richard & Boerboom, Luc & Zevenbergen, Jaap, 2022. "The unintended consequences of Egypt's institutional land regime on unplanned settlement growth in the Nile Valley," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    12. Broitman, Dani & Ben-Haim, Yakov, 2022. "Forecasting residential sprawl under uncertainty: An info-gap analysis," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Weiping Zhang & Peiji Shi & Huali Tong, 2022. "Research on Construction Land Use Benefit and the Coupling Coordination Relationship Based on a Three-Dimensional Frame Model—A Case Study in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, March.
    14. D'Agata, Alessia & Alaimo, Leonardo Salvatore & Cudlín, Pavel & Salvati, Luca, 2023. "Easy come, easy go: Short-term land-use dynamics vis à vis regional economic downturns," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. George Martin & Roland Clift & Ian Christie, 2016. "Urban Cultivation and Its Contributions to Sustainability: Nibbles of Food but Oodles of Social Capital," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-18, April.
    16. Xu, Gang & Xu, Zhibang & Gu, Yanyan & Lei, Weiqian & Pan, Yupiao & Liu, Jie & Jiao, Limin, 2020. "Scaling laws in intra-urban systems and over time at the district level in Shanghai, China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    17. Korthals Altes, Willem K., 2019. "Planning initiative: Promoting development by the use of options in Amsterdam," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 13-21.
    18. Hongyan Cai & Xinliang Xu, 2017. "Impacts of Built-Up Area Expansion in 2D and 3D on Regional Surface Temperature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-16, October.
    19. Saige Wang & Chenchen Zhai & Yunxiao Zhang, 2024. "Evaluating the Impact of Urban Digital Infrastructure on Land Use Efficiency Based on 279 Cities in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, March.
    20. Ma, Wenqiu & Jiang, Guanghui & Zhang, Ruijuan & Li, Yuling & Jiang, Xiaoguang, 2018. "Achieving rural spatial restructuring in China: A suitable framework to understand how structural transitions in rural residential land differ across peri-urban interface?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 583-593.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:8:p:2207-:d:222251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.