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Quantifying Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Rice Yield Gaps in Double-Cropping Systems: A Case Study in Pearl River Delta, China

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  • Yahui Guo

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Wenxiang Wu

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101, China)

  • Christopher Robin Bryant

    (School of Environmental Design and Rural Development, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G2W5, Canada
    Géographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC H2V2B8, Canada)

Abstract

Quantifying the contributing and limiting factors of yield potential is of vital importance, and the closure of existing yield gaps on currently available agricultural land is regarded as the most effective measure to meet future food demands. In this study, the CERES-Rice model and long-term rice yield records of 12 sites from 1981 to 2010 were combined together to investigate the spatial and temporal distributions of yield potential, yield attainable, yield actual, and yield gaps for double cropping rice in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China. The evaluated yield potential of all the sites ranged from 7500 to 14,900 kg/ha, while yield attainable was from 6400 to 12,665 kg/ha, and yield actual was from 4000 to 7000 kg/ha. The yield gaps between yield potential and yield actual, yield potential and yield attainable, and yield attainable and yield actual were projected to be 3500 kg/ha, 1400 kg/ha, and 2100 kg/ha, respectively. The decrease of yield potential was due to the increasing temperature for early mature rice and the prolonged sunshine hours for the yield potential of late mature rice, respectively. The social–economic impacts of yield actual were also assessed, and adaptive measures were simulated so that the yield would certainly increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Yahui Guo & Wenxiang Wu & Christopher Robin Bryant, 2019. "Quantifying Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Rice Yield Gaps in Double-Cropping Systems: A Case Study in Pearl River Delta, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:5:p:1394-:d:211501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guodong Sun & Mu Mu, 2013. "Understanding variations and seasonal characteristics of net primary production under two types of climate change scenarios in China using the LPJ model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 755-769, October.
    2. Timsina, J. & Humphreys, E., 2006. "Performance of CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat models in rice-wheat systems: A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 5-31, October.
    3. Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yahui Guo & Wenxiang Wu & Mingzhu Du & Christopher Robin Bryant & Yong Li & Yuyi Wang & Han Huang, 2019. "Assessing Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptive Measures on Rice Yields: The Case of Zhejiang Province in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-22, April.

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