IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i3p649-d200974.html

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change from Socio-Economic Drivers and Their Impact on Biodiversity in Nan Province, Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Yongyut Trisurat

    (Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand)

  • Hiroaki Shirakawa

    (Department of Urban Environment, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan)

  • John M. Johnston

    (USEPA/ORD/NERL Computational Exposure Division, Athens, GA 30605, USA)

Abstract

The rate of deforestation declined steadily in Thailand since the year 2000 due to economic transformation away from forestry. However, these changes did not occur in Nan Province located in northern Thailand. Deforestation is expected to continue due to high demand for forest products and increased agribusiness. The objectives of this paper are (1) to predict land-use change in the province based on trends, market-based and conservation scenarios, (2) to quantify biodiversity, and (3) to identify biodiversity hotspots at greatest risk for future deforestation. This study used a dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) to allocate aggregated land demand for three scenarios and employed FRAGSTATS to determine the spatial pattern of land-use change. In addition, the InVEST Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework was used to estimate biodiversity expressed as the remaining mean species abundance (MSA) relative to their abundance in the pristine reference condition. Risk of deforestation and the MSA values were combined to determine biodiversity hotspots across the landscape at greatest risk. The results revealed that most of the forest cover in 2030 would remain in the west and east of the province, which are rugged and not easily accessible, as well as in protected areas. MSA values are predicted to decrease from 0.41 in 2009 to 0.29, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively, under the trends, market-based and conservation scenarios in 2030. In addition, the low, medium, and high biodiversity zones cover 46, 49 and 6% of Nan Province. Protected areas substantially contribute to maintaining forest cover and greater biodiversity. Important measures to protect remaining cover and maintain biodiversity include patrolling at-risk deforestation areas, reduction of road expansion in pristine forest areas, and promotion of incentive schemes for farmers to rehabilitate degraded ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongyut Trisurat & Hiroaki Shirakawa & John M. Johnston, 2019. "Land-Use/Land-Cover Change from Socio-Economic Drivers and Their Impact on Biodiversity in Nan Province, Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:3:p:649-:d:200974
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/3/649/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/3/649/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Norman Myers & Russell A. Mittermeier & Cristina G. Mittermeier & Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca & Jennifer Kent, 2000. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6772), pages 853-858, February.
    2. Sunsanee Arunyawat & Rajendra P. Shrestha, 2016. "Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008. "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 11-37, March.
    4. Balisacan, Arsenio & Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Ravago, Majah-Leah (ed.), 2014. "Sustainable Economic Development," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780128003473.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jamroon Srichaichana & Yongyut Trisurat & Suwit Ongsomwang, 2019. "Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios for Optimum Water Yield and Sediment Retention Ecosystem Services in Klong U-Tapao Watershed, Songkhla, Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Starfinger, Marcel, 2021. "Financing smallholder tree planting: Tree collateral & Thai ‘Tree Banks’ - Collateral 2.0?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Zhang, Xueru & Song, Wei & Lang, Yanqing & Feng, Xiaomiao & Yuan, Quanzhi & Wang, Jingtao, 2020. "Land use changes in the coastal zone of China’s Hebei Province and the corresponding impacts on habitat quality," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Meng Wang & Xiaofang Sun & Zemeng Fan & Tianxiang Yue, 2019. "Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Genovaitė Liobikienė & Dalia Štreimikienė & Tomas Baležentis, 2026. "Responsibility of Sustainable Food Production: A Systematic Analysis of the Nexus of (Organic) Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 3967-3978, May.
    6. Jenke, Michael, 2024. "Community-based forest management moderates the impact of deforestation pressure in Thailand," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    7. Honglei Jiang & Xia Xu & Mengxi Guan & Lingfei Wang & Yongmei Huang & Yinghui Liu, 2019. "Simulation of Spatiotemporal Land Use Changes for Integrated Model of Socioeconomic and Ecological Processes in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-18, July.
    8. Chouaib Jouf & Laté Lawson, 2021. "European farmers’ responses to higher commodity prices: cropland expansion or forestlands preservation?," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-10, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Penny, Jessica & Ordens, Carlos M. & Barnett, Steve & Djordjević, Slobodan & Chen, Albert S., 2023. "Small-scale land use change modelling using transient groundwater levels and salinities as driving factors – An example from a sub-catchment of Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kangyao Liu & Xinxin Wu & Xiaoping Liu, 2025. "Impact of Future Urban Expansion on Endemic Species in China at the Species Level," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Dang, Anh Nguyet & Jackson, Bethanna Marie & Benavidez, Rubianca & Tomscha, Stephanie Anne, 2021. "Review of ecosystem service assessments: Pathways for policy integration in Southeast Asia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Laxmi D. Bhatta & Sunita Chaudhary & Anju Pandit & Himlal Baral & Partha J. Das & Nigel E. Stork, 2016. "Ecosystem Service Changes and Livelihood Impacts in the Maguri-Motapung Wetlands of Assam, India," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, June.
    4. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Caviedes, Julián & Ibarra, José Tomás & Calvet-Mir, Laura & Álvarez-Fernández, Santiago & Junqueira, André Braga, 2024. "Indigenous and local knowledge on social-ecological changes is positively associated with livelihood resilience in a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Maeda, Eduardo Eiji & Clark, Barnaby J.F. & Pellikka, Petri & Siljander, Mika, 2010. "Modelling agricultural expansion in Kenya's Eastern Arc Mountains biodiversity hotspot," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 609-620, November.
    7. Aibo Jin & Gachen Zhang & Ping Ma & Xiangrong Wang, 2024. "Ecosystem Services Trade-Offs in the Chaohu Lake Basin Based on Land-Use Scenario Simulations," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-29, December.
    8. Wang, Lijing & Zhang, Lu & Xiao, Yi & Kong, Lingqiao & Ouyang, Zhiyun, 2025. "Identifying suitable areas for cropland and urban development in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. Gulay Cetinkaya Ciftcioglu, 2025. "Tackling the resilience of the olive landscape through nature-based solutions: a case study from the Akdeniz protected area of Northern Cyprus," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 1-19, June.
    10. Elisa Barbour & Lara Kueppers, 2012. "Conservation and management of ecological systems in a changing California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 135-163, March.
    11. van der Hoff, Richard & Nascimento, Nathália & Fabrício-Neto, Ailton & Jaramillo-Giraldo, Carolina & Ambrosio, Geanderson & Arieira, Julia & Afonso Nobre, Carlos & Rajão, Raoni, 2022. "Policy-oriented ecosystem services research on tropical forests in South America: A systematic literature review," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Brendan Fisher & Stephen Polasky & Thomas Sterner, 2011. "Conservation and Human Welfare: Economic Analysis of Ecosystem Services," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(2), pages 151-159, February.
    13. Pütz, S. & Groeneveld, J. & Alves, L.F. & Metzger, J.P. & Huth, A., 2011. "Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(12), pages 1986-1997.
    14. Stephanie D. Maier & Jan Paul Lindner & Javier Francisco, 2019. "Conceptual Framework for Biodiversity Assessments in Global Value Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-34, March.
    15. Danning Chen & Weifeng Chen & Xincun Zhu & Shugang Xie & Peiyu Du & Xiaolong Chen & Dong Lv, 2025. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Restoration Strategy of Ecological Security Pattern in the Yellow River Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-28, October.
    16. Sehgal, Shaina & Babu, Suresh, 2021. "Economic Transformation of the Nicobar Islands Post-tsunami: A Material Import–Export Analysis," Ecology, Economy and Society - the INSEE Journal, Indian Society of Ecological Economics (INSEE), vol. 4(02), July.
    17. Poonam Tripathi & Mukund Dev Behera & Partha Sarathi Roy, 2017. "Optimized grid representation of plant species richness in India—Utility of an existing national database in integrated ecological analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, March.
    18. Davis, Katrina & Pannell, David J. & Kragt, Marit & Gelcich, Stefan & Schilizzi, Steven, "undated". "Accounting for enforcement is essential to improve the spatial allocation of marine restricted-use zoning systems," Working Papers 195718, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    19. Aritta Suwarno & Meine van Noordwijk & Hans-Peter Weikard & Desi Suyamto, 2018. "Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 211-229, February.
    20. Juliana Silveira dos Santos & Fausto Miziara & Hayla da Silva Fernandes & Renato Cezar Miranda & Rosane Garcia Collevatti, 2021. "Technification in Dairy Farms May Reconcile Habitat Conservation in a Brazilian Savanna Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-15, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:3:p:649-:d:200974. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.