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The Prediction of Batting Averages in Major League Baseball

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah R. Bailey

    (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC V5A1S6, Canada)

  • Jason Loeppky

    (Department of Computer Science, Mathematics, Physics and Statistics, University of British Columbia Okanagan, 3187 University Way, Kelowna, BC VIV1V7, Canada)

  • Tim B. Swartz

    (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC V5A1S6, Canada)

Abstract

The prediction of yearly batting averages in Major League Baseball is a notoriously difficult problem where standard errors using the well-known PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) system are roughly 20 points. This paper considers the use of ball-by-ball data provided by the Statcast system in an attempt to predict batting averages. The publicly available Statcast data and resultant predictions supplement proprietary PECOTA forecasts. With detailed Statcast data, we attempt to account for a luck component involving batting averages. It is anticipated that the luck component will not be repeated in future seasons. The two predictions (Statcast and PECOTA) are combined via simple linear regression to provide improved forecasts of batting average.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah R. Bailey & Jason Loeppky & Tim B. Swartz, 2020. "The Prediction of Batting Averages in Major League Baseball," Stats, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-10, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jstats:v:3:y:2020:i:2:p:8-93:d:340854
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scully, Gerald W, 1974. "Pay and Performance in Major League Baseball," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 915-930, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sumit Sarkar & Sooraj Kamath, 2023. "Does luck play a role in the determination of the rank positions in football leagues? A study of Europe’s ‘big five’," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 245-260, June.

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