IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v9y2021i2p34-d493485.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Smart Beta Allocation and Macroeconomic Variables: The Impact of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Foglia

    (Risk-Management Department, Eurizon Capital SGR, 61264 Milan, Italy)

  • Maria Cristina Recchioni

    (Department of Economic and Social Sciences, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy)

  • Gloria Polinesi

    (Department of Economic and Social Sciences, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy)

Abstract

Smart beta strategies across economic regimes seek to address inefficiencies created by market-based indices, thereby enhancing portfolio returns above traditional benchmarks. Our goal is to develop a strategy for re-hedging smart beta portfolios that shows the connection between multi-factor strategies and macroeconomic variables. This is done, first, by analyzing finite correlations between the portfolio weights and macroeconomic variables and, more remarkably, by defining an investment tilting variable. The latter is analyzed with a discriminant analysis approach with a twofold application. The first is the selection of the crucial re-hedging thresholds which generate a strong connection between factors and macroeconomic variables. The second is forecasting portfolio dynamics (gain and loss). The capability of forecasting is even more evident in the COVID-19 period. Analysis is carried out on the iShares US exchange traded fund (ETF) market using monthly data in the period December 2013–May 2020, thereby highlighting the impact of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Foglia & Maria Cristina Recchioni & Gloria Polinesi, 2021. "Smart Beta Allocation and Macroeconomic Variables: The Impact of COVID-19," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-25, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:2:p:34-:d:493485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/2/34/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/2/34/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Rigamonti, 2020. "Mean-Variance Optimization Is a Good Choice, But for Other Reasons than You Might Think," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    3. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    4. Asness, Clifford & Frazzini, Andrea & Israel, Ronen & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Pedersen, Lasse H., 2018. "Size matters, if you control your junk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 479-509.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    6. Austin Shelton, 2017. "The value of stop-loss, stop-gain strategies in dynamic asset allocation," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(2), pages 124-143, March.
    7. Brière, Marie & Szafarz, Ariane, 2020. "Good diversification is never wasted: How to tilt factor portfolios with sectors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    8. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    10. Ang, Andrew, 2014. "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199959327.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    12. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2013. "The other side of value: The gross profitability premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-28.
    13. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    14. Yuhang Xing, 2008. "Interpreting the Value Effect Through the Q-Theory: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1767-1795, July.
    15. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2006. "Profitability, investment and average returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 491-518, December.
    17. Ahmed Imran Hunjra & Suha Mahmoud Alawi & Sisira Colombage & Uroosa Sahito & Mahnoor Hanif, 2020. "Portfolio Construction by Using Different Risk Models: A Comparison among Diverse Economic Scenarios," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-23, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Priya Malhotra & Pankaj Sinha, 2023. "Exchange-traded Funds in India Amid COVID-19 Crisis: An Empirical Analysis of the Performance," Metamorphosis: A Journal of Management Research, , vol. 22(1), pages 38-54, June.
    2. Julia V. Ragulina & Vladimir F. Ukolov & Oleg V. Shabunevich, 2021. "Adaptation to the Risks of Digitalization: New Survival Trends for States in a Multipolar World," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-21, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    2. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    3. Ailie Charteris & Mukashema Rwishema & Tafadzwa-Hidah Chidede, 2018. "Asset Pricing and Momentum: A South African Perspective," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 62-85, January.
    4. Sara Kelly Anzinger & Chinmoy Ghosh & Milena Petrova, 2017. "The Other Side of Value: The Effect of Quality on Price and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 429-457, April.
    5. Rocciolo, Francesco & Gheno, Andrea & Brooks, Chris, 2022. "Explaining abnormal returns in stock markets: An alpha-neutral version of the CAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 23394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kaserer Christoph & Hanauer Matthias X., 2017. "25 Jahre Fama-French-Modell: Erklärungsgehalt, Anomalien und praktische Implikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 98-116, June.
    8. Mateus, Irina B. & Mateus, Cesario & Todorovic, Natasa, 2019. "Review of new trends in the literature on factor models and mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 344-354.
    9. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    10. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lauterbach, Jochim G., 2019. "The cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 265-286.
    11. Calvet, Laurent E. & Betermier, Sebastien & Jo, Evan, 2019. "A Supply and Demand Approach to Equity Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Lin, Qi, 2017. "Noisy prices and the Fama–French five-factor asset pricing model in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 141-163.
    13. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2018. "Betas V characteristics: Do stock characteristics enhance the investment opportunity set in U.K. stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 114-129.
    14. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    15. Sawaliya, Priya & Sinha, Pankaj, 2018. "Behaviour of asset pricing models in pre and post-recession period: an evidence from India," MPRA Paper 93084, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Jan 2019.
    16. Robert F. Stambaugh & Yu Yuan, 2017. "Mispricing Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1270-1315.
    17. Liebi, Luca J., 2022. "Is there a value premium in cryptoasset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    18. Marc Desban & Souad Lajili Jarjir, 2018. "Corporate ownership structure, market anomalies and asset pricing," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(5), pages 316-340, September.
    19. Clifford S. Asness & Andrea Frazzini & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2019. "Quality minus junk," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 34-112, March.
    20. Güler ARAS & İlhan ÇAM & Bilal ZAVALSIZ & Serkan KESKİN, 2018. "Fama-French Çok Faktör Varlık Fiyatlama Modellerinin Performanslarının Karşılaştırılması: Borsa İstanbul Üzerine Bir Uygulama," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 47(2), pages 183-207, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:2:p:34-:d:493485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.