IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v13y2025i7p137-d1702957.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Novel Stochastic Copula Model for the Texas Energy Market

Author

Listed:
  • Sudeesha Warunasinghe

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr NW, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Anatoliy Swishchuk

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr NW, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The simulation of wind power, electricity load, and natural gas prices will allow commodity traders to see the future movement of prices in a more probabilistic manner. The ability to observe possible paths for wind power, electricity load, and natural gas prices enables traders to obtain valuable insights for placing their trades on electricity prices. Since the above processes involve a seasonality factor, the seasonality component was modeled using a truncated Fourier series, and the random component was modeled using stochastic differential equations (SDE). It is evident from the literature that all the above processes are mean-reverting processes; thus, three mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) processes were considered the model for wind power, the electricity load, and natural gas prices. Industry experts believe there is a correlation between wind power, the electricity load, and natural gas prices. For example, when wind power is higher and the electricity load is lower, natural gas prices are relatively low. The novelty of this study is the incorporation of the correlation structure between processes into the mean-reverting OU process using a copula function. Thus, the study utilized a vine copula and integrated it into the simulation. The study was conducted for the Texas energy market and used daily time scales for the simulations, and it was able to conclude that the proposed novel mean-reverting OU process outperforms the classical mean-reverting process in the case of wind power and the electricity load.

Suggested Citation

  • Sudeesha Warunasinghe & Anatoliy Swishchuk, 2025. "A Novel Stochastic Copula Model for the Texas Energy Market," Risks, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-32, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:13:y:2025:i:7:p:137-:d:1702957
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/7/137/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/7/137/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Dependence and extreme dependence of crude oil and natural gas prices with applications to risk management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 332-342.
    2. Jonathan Berrisch & Sven Pappert & Florian Ziel & Antonia Arsova, 2022. "Modeling Volatility and Dependence of European Carbon and Energy Prices," Papers 2208.14311, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    3. Yeny E. Rodríguez & Miguel A. Pérez-Uribe & Javier Contreras, 2021. "Wind Put Barrier Options Pricing Based on the Nordix Index," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    4. Nguyen, Hang T. & Nabney, Ian T., 2010. "Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3674-3685.
    5. Coulon, Michael & Powell, Warren B. & Sircar, Ronnie, 2013. "A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 976-988.
    6. Berrisch, Jonathan & Pappert, Sven & Ziel, Florian & Arsova, Antonia, 2023. "Modeling volatility and dependence of European carbon and energy prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Kun & Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Forecasting interval carbon price through a multi-scale interval-valued decomposition ensemble approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Amaddeo, Elsa & Bergantino, Angela Stefania & Magazzino, Cosimo, 2025. "Who pays for the EU Emission Trading System? The risk of shifting tax burden from firm to final consumer," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Sikorska-Pastuszka, Magdalena & Papież, Monika, 2023. "Dynamic volatility connectedness in the European electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    4. Paul Ghelasi & Florian Ziel, 2024. "From day-ahead to mid and long-term horizons with econometric electricity price forecasting models," Papers 2406.00326, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    5. Živkov, Dejan & Kuzman, Boris & Japundžić, Miloš, 2025. "Using metals to hedge carbon emission allowances – Tail-risk and Omega ratio analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. Simon Hirsch & Florian Ziel, 2023. "Multivariate Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Cross-Product Price Effects," Papers 2306.13419, arXiv.org.
    7. Maneejuk, Paravee & Huang, Wucaihong & Yamaka, Woraphon, 2025. "Asymmetric volatility spillover effects from energy, agriculture, green bond, and financial market uncertainty on carbon market during major market crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Yuji Yamada & Takuji Matsumoto, 2023. "Construction of Mixed Derivatives Strategy for Wind Power Producers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-26, April.
    9. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Taskin, Dilvin & Evrim Mandaci, Pınar, 2019. "The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Daniel Poh & Stephen Roberts & Martin Tegn'er, 2019. "A Machine Learning approach to Risk Minimisation in Electricity Markets with Coregionalized Sparse Gaussian Processes," Papers 1903.09536, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    11. Pinto, T. & Morais, H. & Oliveira, P. & Vale, Z. & Praça, I. & Ramos, C., 2011. "A new approach for multi-agent coalition formation and management in the scope of electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5004-5015.
    12. Jammazi, Rania, 2012. "Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 430-454.
    13. Dimitrios Mouchtaris & Emmanouil Sofianos & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2021. "Forecasting Natural Gas Spot Prices with Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-13, September.
    14. Chen, Qian & He, Peng & Yu, Chuanjin & Zhang, Xiaochi & He, Jiayong & Li, Yongle, 2023. "Multi-step short-term wind speed predictions employing multi-resolution feature fusion and frequency information mining," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    15. Singh, Nitin & Mohanty, Soumya Ranjan & Dev Shukla, Rishabh, 2017. "Short term electricity price forecast based on environmentally adapted generalized neuron," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 127-139.
    16. Wang, Lei & Wang, Xinyu & Zhao, Zhongchao, 2024. "Mid-term electricity demand forecasting using improved multi-mode reconstruction and particle swarm-enhanced support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    17. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    18. Yadong Pei & Chiou-Jye Huang & Yamin Shen & Mingyue Wang, 2023. "A Novel Model for Spot Price Forecast of Natural Gas Based on Temporal Convolutional Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-15, February.
    19. Zou, Yingchao & Yu, Lean & Tso, Geoffrey K.F. & He, Kaijian, 2020. "Risk forecasting in the crude oil market: A multiscale Convolutional Neural Network approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    20. Lopez-Ruiz, G. & Alava, I. & Blanco, J.M., 2021. "Study on the feasibility of the micromix combustion principle in low NOx H2 burners for domestic and industrial boilers: A numerical approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:13:y:2025:i:7:p:137-:d:1702957. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.