IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v9y2021i8p902-d538783.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Candidates’ Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Camilo Campos-Valdés

    (Doctorado en Sistemas de Ingeniería, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Talca, Curicó 3340000, Chile
    Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Chile, 5 Poniente 1670, Talca 3460000, Chile)

  • Eduardo Álvarez-Miranda

    (School of Economics and Business, Universidad de Talca, Talca 3460000, Chile)

  • Mauricio Morales Quiroga

    (Departamento de Ciencia Política y Administración Pública, Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Sociales, Universidad de Talca, Santiago 8320000, Chile)

  • Jordi Pereira

    (Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Av. Padre Hurtado 750, Viña del Mar 2520000, Chile)

  • Félix Liberona Durán

    (Escuela de Postgrado, Facultad de Arquitectura y Urbanismo, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8320000, Chile)

Abstract

In recent years, a wide range of techniques has been developed to predict electoral results and to measure the influence of different factors in these results. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the political profile of candidates (characterized by personal and political features) and their campaign effort (characterized by electoral expenditure and by territorial deployment strategies retrieved from social networks activity) on the electoral results. This analysis is carried out by using three of the most frequent data analyitcs algorithms in the literature. For our analysis, we consider the 2017 Parliamentary elections in Chile, which are the first elections after a major reform of the electoral system, that encompassed a transition from a binomial to a proportional system, a modification of the districts’ structure, an increase in the number of seats, and the requirement of gender parity in the lists of the different coalitions. The obtained results reveal that, regardless of the political coalition, the electoral experience of candidates, in particular in the same seat they are running for (even when the corresponding district is modified), is by large the most influential factor to explain the electoral results. However, the attained results show that the influence of other features, such as campaign expenditures, depends on the political coalition. Additionally, by means of a simulation procedure, we show how different levels of territorial deployment efforts might impact on the results of candidates. This procedure could be used by parties and coalitions when planning their campaign strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Camilo Campos-Valdés & Eduardo Álvarez-Miranda & Mauricio Morales Quiroga & Jordi Pereira & Félix Liberona Durán, 2021. "The Impact of Candidates’ Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:8:p:902-:d:538783
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/8/902/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/8/902/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loosemore, John & Hanby, Victor J., 1971. "The Theoretical Limits of Maximum Distortion: Some Analytic Expressions for Electoral Systems," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(4), pages 467-477, October.
    2. Mona Lena Krook & Pippa Norris, 2014. "Beyond Quotas: Strategies to Promote Gender Equality in Elected Office," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 62(1), pages 2-20, March.
    3. Jacobson, Gary C., 1978. "The Effects of Campaign Spending in Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 469-491, June.
    4. Ferejohn, John A., 1977. "On the Decline of Competition in Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 166-176, March.
    5. Mona Lena Krook & Pippa Norris, 2014. "Beyond Quotas: Strategies to Promote Gender Equality in Elected Office," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Migheli, Matteo, 2022. "Lost in election. How different electoral systems translate the voting gender gap into gender representation bias," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Sally Sargeson & Tamara Jacka, 2018. "Improving Women's Substantive Representation in Community Government: Evidence from Chinese Villages," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 49(5), pages 1166-1194, September.
    3. Owain Smolović Jones & Sanela Smolović Jones & Scott Taylor & Emily Yarrow, 2022. "Theorizing gender desegregation as political work: The case of the Welsh Labour Party," Gender, Work and Organization, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 1747-1763, November.
    4. Wang, Zhao & He, Yali & Jiang, Tianqi, 2024. "Does the gender composition of local governments matter for firms’ information environment? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. KASUYA Yuko & MIWA Hirofumi & ONO Yoshikuni, 2022. "Why are There More Women in the Upper House?," Discussion papers 22094, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. J. Zachary Klingensmith, 2019. "Using tax dollars for re-election: the impact of pork-barrel spending on electoral success," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 31-49, March.
    7. Kaare Strom, 1989. "Inter-party Competition in Advanced Democracies," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 1(3), pages 277-300, July.
    8. Valente, Jordan & Moreno, Frede, 2014. "Women’s representation in local politics: Evidence from The Philippines," MPRA Paper 57903, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Aug 2014.
    9. Albert Stanslas Junior Chisanga & Adrian Matole & Eliazer Lushinga Kawila & Sanny Mulubale, 2024. "Unearthing Strategies to Mitigate Political Violence Against Women in Matero Constituency of Lusaka District, Zambia," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(5), pages 397-403, May.
    10. Oren Griffiths & Lynette Roberts & Josh Price, 2019. "Desirable leadership attributes are preferentially associated with women: A quantitative study of gender and leadership roles in the Australian workforce," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 44(1), pages 32-49, February.
    11. Mihail CIOBANU & Eugenia LUCASENCO, 2019. "Analysis of gender quotas implementation for women empowerment: EU and Republic of Moldova’s experience," THE YEARBOOK OF THE "GH. ZANE" INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCHES, Gheorghe Zane Institute for Economic and Social Research ( from THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY, JASSY BRANCH), vol. 28(1), pages 163-176.
    12. Petra Ahrens & Petra Meier, 2024. "From Parliament to Party: The Gender‐Sensitive Parliamentary Group," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 12.
    13. Linda Fowler, 1979. "The electoral lottery: Decisions to run for Congress," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 399-418, September.
    14. Terence Wood, 2015. "Aiding Women Candidates in Solomon Islands: Suggestions for Development Policy," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 531-543, September.
    15. Julia Cage & Edgard Dewitte, 2021. "It Takes Money to Make MPs: Evidence from 150 Years of British Campaign Spending," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03384143, HAL.
    16. Gary Jacobson, 1985. "Money and votes reconsidered: congressional elections, 1972–1982," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 7-62, January.
    17. Popov, Vladimir, 2014. "Puzzles of public opinion: Why Soviet population supports the transition to capitalism since the 1980S," MPRA Paper 60915, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Julia Cage & Edgard Dewitte, 2021. "It Takes Money to Make MPs: Evidence from 150 Years of British Campaign Spending," SciencePo Working papers hal-03384143, HAL.
    19. Matthew Gould & Matthew D. Rablen, 2013. "Equitable Representation in the Councils of the United Nations: Theory and Application," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 13-07, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
    20. Ron Johnston & Charles Pattie, 2009. "MPs' Expenditure and General Election Campaigns: Do Incumbents Benefit from Contacting their Constituents?," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 57(3), pages 580-591, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:8:p:902-:d:538783. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.