Risk-Based Optimization of Multimodal Oil Product Operations Through Simulation and Workflow Modeling

Background : The transportation of petroleum products via multimodal logistics systems is a complex process subject to operational inefficiencies and elevated risk exposure. The efficient and resilient transportation of petroleum products increasingly depends on multimodal logistics systems, where operational risks and process inefficiencies can significantly impact safety and performance. This study addresses the research question of how an integrated risk-based and workflow-driven approach can enhance the management of oil products logistics in complex port environments. Methods : A dual methodological framework was applied at the Port of Midia, Romania, combining a probabilistic risk assessment model, quantifying incident probability, infrastructure vulnerability, and exposure, with dynamic business process modeling (BPM) using specialized software. The workflow simulation replicated real-world multimodal oil operations across maritime, rail, road, and inland waterway segments. Results : The analysis identified human error, technical malfunctions, and environmental hazards as key risk factors, with an aggregated major incident probability of 2.39%. BPM simulation highlighted critical bottlenecks in customs processing, inland waterway lock transit, and road tanker dispatch. Process optimizations based on simulation insights achieved a 25% reduction in operational delays. Conclusions : Integrating risk assessment with dynamic workflow modeling provides an effective methodology for improving the resilience, efficiency, and regulatory compliance of multimodal oil logistics operations. This approach offers practical guidance for port operators and contributes to advancing risk-informed logistics management in the petroleum supply chain.