Comprehensive Assessment of Drought Susceptibility Using Predictive Modeling, Climate Change Projections, and Land Use Dynamics for Sustainable Management

This study assessed the drought susceptibility in Golestan Province, Northeastern Iran, using land use change modeling and climate projections from the CMIP6 framework, under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for 2030–2050. The development of current (2022) and future drought susceptibility maps was based on agrometeorological sample points and 14 environmental factors—such as land use, precipitation, mean temperature, soil moisture, and remote sensing-driven vegetation indices—used as inputs into a machine learning model, maximum entropy. The model showed a very robust predictive capacity, with AUCs for the training and test data of 0.929 and 0.910, thus certifying the model’s reliability. The current analysis identified major hotspots in Gomishan and Aqqala, where 66.12% and 36.12% of their areas, respectively, exhibited “very high” susceptibility. Projections under the SSP scenarios, particularly SSP5-8.5, indicate that the risk of drought will be the most severe in Maraveh Tappeh, where 72.09% of the area exhibits a “very high” risk. The results revealed that Golestan Province is at a crossroads. Rising temperatures, exceeding 35 °C in summer, combined with declining rainfall, intensify agricultural and hydrological droughts. These aggravated risks are compounded with land use transitions from rangelands to bare land, mostly in Aqqala and Gomishan, besides urban expansion in Bandar-e Torkman and Bandar Gaz, all of which face less groundwater recharge and increased surface runoff. Golestan’s drought vulnerability has both local and regional impacts, with its increased susceptibility affecting neighboring communities and ecosystems. Trade, migration, and ecological stresses linked to declining water resources may emerge as critical challenges, requiring regional collaboration for mitigation. Targeted interventions prioritizing sustainable land use practices, regional cooperation, and collaborative strategies are essential to address and mitigate these cascading risks and safeguard vulnerable communities.