Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Changes and Drivers of Urban Sprawl in Xinjiang Based on Integrated DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS Data

The accelerated urbanization taking place across Xinjiang in recent years has vastly improved the quality of life for people living in the region. However, to achieve rational urban growth and sustainable regional development, a deeper understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns, spatial morphology, and driving factors of urban sprawl is crucial. Nighttime light (NTL) data provide a novel approach for studying the spatial and temporal changes in urban expansion. In this study, based on DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS data, we analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban changes using the standard deviation ellipse and employ the geographical detector to analyze the impact of natural environmental and socioeconomic factors on the dynamic rate of urban expansion. The results reveal the following. (1) The overall accuracy of urban area extraction is above 80%, and the urban area of Xinjiang has expanded about 9.1 times over the past 30 years. Further, the growth rate from 2007 to 2017 exceeds the growth rate from 1992 to 1997, with the center of gravity of urban development shifting to the southwest. (2) The 5a sliding average temperature and average annual precipitation in the study area in 1992–2022 are 6.08 °C and 169.72 mm, respectively, showing a decrease in the urbanization rate followed by an increase, due to a rise in temperature and precipitation levels. (3) By combining the results of geographical detector factor detection and interaction detection, precipitation is determined to be the main controlling factor, while air temperature and GDP are secondary factors. This study presents new findings on the correlation between urban spatial and temporal changes and climate in Xinjiang, thus providing a scientific reference for future research on urban expansion and natural environment evolution.