IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i3p352-d1353996.html

Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Water Conservation in the Three-River Headstreams Region of China Based on the Integration of the InVEST Model and Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Xinyue Xie

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

  • Min Peng

    (Gansu Province Water Resources and Hydropower Survey Design Institute Co., Ltd., Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Linglei Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

  • Min Chen

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

  • Jia Li

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

  • Youcai Tuo

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

Abstract

The Three-River Headstreams Region (TRHR) serves as the cradle of China’s three major rivers—the Yangtze, Yellow, and Lancang—rendering its water conservation (WC) capacity quintessentially significant for Asian water resource security. This study integrated the InVEST model and random forest model to holistically elucidate the spatiotemporal characteristics and factors influencing WC in the TRHR from 1980 to 2018. The results revealed that the WC growth rate was 5.65 mm/10a in the TRHR during the study period, yet pronounced regional disparities were observed among different basins, especially with the Lancang River Basin (LRB), which exhibited a decrease at a rate of 5.08 mm per decade despite having the highest WC. Through Theil–Sen trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall abrupt change test, and the cumulative deviation method, meteorological, vegetative, and land use abrupt changes in approximately 2000 were identified as the primary drivers for the abrupt surge in WC within the TRHR. Furthermore, precipitation and the aridity index were the core feature variables affecting WC. However, a positive transition in land use patterns post-2000 was also revealed, and its favorable effect on WC was not as significant as the abrupt climatic changes. This study offers new perspectives on managing multidimensional spatiotemporal data and contributes to laying the groundwork for machine learning applications in water conservation. Additionally, it potentially provides useful references for decision-making processes related to ecosystem security.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinyue Xie & Min Peng & Linglei Zhang & Min Chen & Jia Li & Youcai Tuo, 2024. "Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Water Conservation in the Three-River Headstreams Region of China Based on the Integration of the InVEST Model and Machine Learning," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-33, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:3:p:352-:d:1353996
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/3/352/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/3/352/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meng Zhao & Geruo A & Yanlan Liu & Alexandra G. Konings, 2022. "Evapotranspiration frequently increases during droughts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(11), pages 1024-1030, November.
    2. Qianru Chen & Xin Xu & Manyu Wu & Jiaming Wen & Jinlang Zou, 2022. "Assessing the Water Conservation Function Based on the InVEST Model: Taking Poyang Lake Region as an Example," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-16, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Irmadi Nahib & Yudi Wahyudin & Wiwin Ambarwulan & Bono Pranoto & Fadhlullah Ramadhani & Destika Cahyana & Nunung Puji Nugroho & Nawa Suwedi & Jaka Suryanta & Vicca Karolinoerita & Mulyanto Darmawan & , 2025. "Spatial Analysis of Water Conservation and Its Driving Factors in an Urban Citarum Tropical Watershed: Geospatial Approach," Resources, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Luying Li & Xin Chen & Yayuan Che & Hao Yang & Ziqiang Du & Zhitao Wu & Tao Liu & Zhenrong Du & Xiangcheng Li & Yaoyao Li, 2025. "Water-Yield Variability and Its Attribution in the Yellow River Basin of China over Four Decades," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Pontien Kuma Nyongo & Jude Ndzifon Kimengsi, 2025. "Socio-Ecological Outcomes of Forest Landscape Mutations in the Congo Basin: Learning from Cameroon," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-22, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aibo Jin & Gachen Zhang & Ping Ma & Xiangrong Wang, 2024. "Ecosystem Services Trade-Offs in the Chaohu Lake Basin Based on Land-Use Scenario Simulations," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-29, December.
    2. Yang Zhang & Nazhalati Naerkezi & Yun Zhang & Bo Wang, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Land Use/Cover Change and Its Impact on Carbon Storage Based on the Coupled GMOP-PLUS-InVEST Model in the Hexi Corridor, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Feng, Yao & Sun, Fubao & Liu, Fa, 2025. "SHAP-powered insights into short-term drought dynamics disturbed by diurnal temperature range across China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    4. Xilong Dai & Yue Wang & Xinhang Li & Kang Wang & Jia Zhou & Hongwei Ni, 2023. "Effects of Temporal and Spatial Changes in Wetlands on Regional Carbon Storage in the Naoli River Basin, Sanjiang Plain, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Vecchia P. Ravinandrasana & Christian L. E. Franzke, 2025. "The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Xiao, Jing & Sun, Fubao & Wang, Tingting & Wang, Hong, 2024. "Estimation and validation of high-resolution evapotranspiration products for an arid river basin using multi-source remote sensing data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    7. Hui Li & Qingchun Guan & Yanguo Fan & Chengyang Guan, 2024. "Ecosystem Service Value Assessment of the Yellow River Delta Based on Satellite Remote Sensing Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Ma, Yiwen & Yu, Xuan & Li, Maofen & Huang, Jiajian & Li, Hailiang & Zhong, Tianjiao, 2025. "Comprehensive drought detection, spatiotemporal variations, and attribution across different agricultural climate zones in Eastern China using a copula-based drought index," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    9. Kandula Bharghavi & Thotli Lokeswara Reddy & Hemalatha Kapa & Penti Rajesh & Hasanapuram Sushmitha & Krishnareddigari Krishna Reddy, 2025. "Evaluating climate change impact on drought: a comprehensive review of drought indices and future projections," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(18), pages 20819-20854, November.
    10. Gele, Teri & Bao, Yongbin & Ersi, Cha & Sudu, Bilige & Wei, Sicheng & Zhang, Jiquan & Tong, Zhijun & Liu, Xingpeng, 2025. "Occurrence, evolution and causes of different drought levels affecting winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    11. Dong, Jianshu & Shen, Xiaojun & Zhang, Xiaopei & Chen, Junwei & Li, Haiming & Li, Qiang & He, Jiaqi & Liu, Hongguang, 2025. "Optimizing water-nitrogen management enhances productivity for peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) with drip-irrigated under mulched in Northwest of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    12. Wantong Li & Javier Pacheco-Labrador & Mirco Migliavacca & Diego Miralles & Anne Hoek van Dijke & Markus Reichstein & Matthias Forkel & Weijie Zhang & Christian Frankenberg & Annu Panwar & Qian Zhang , 2023. "Widespread and complex drought effects on vegetation physiology inferred from space," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Mingfei Li & Zehong Zhu & Junye Deng & Jiaxin Zhang & Yunqin Li, 2025. "Geospatial Explainable AI Uncovers Eco-Environmental Effects and Its Driving Mechanisms—Evidence from the Poyang Lake Region, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, June.
    14. Miao Zhang & Xing Yuan & Zhenzhong Zeng & Ming Pan & Peili Wu & Jingfeng Xiao & Trevor F. Keenan, 2025. "A pronounced decline in northern vegetation resistance to flash droughts from 2001 to 2022," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Liu, Yuqi & Wang, Aiwen & Li, Bo & Šimůnek, Jirka & Liao, Renkuan, 2024. "Combining mathematical models and machine learning algorithms to predict the future regional-scale actual transpiration by maize," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    16. Xiaoyong Li & Yan Lv & Wenfeng Chi & Zhongen Niu & Zihao Bian & Jing Wang, 2025. "Climate Change Amplifies the Effects of Vegetation Restoration on Evapotranspiration and Water Availability in the Beijing–Tianjin Sand Source Region, Northern China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-21, March.
    17. Kang Li & Hui Qian & Siqi Li & Zhiming Cao & Panpan Tian & Xiaoxin Shi & Jie Chen & Yanyan Gao, 2025. "Quantifying the Driving Forces of Water Conservation Using Geodetector with Optimized Parameters: A Case Study of the Yiluo River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-25, January.
    18. Liu, Yong & Hu, Tiesong & Zhu, Rui & Chen, Qiuwen & Zeng, Xiang & Jing, Peiran & Huang, Yifan, 2025. "A stomatal optimization model integrating leaf stomata-photosynthetic capacity regulation in response to soil water stress," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    19. Lu, Xiaoyao & Zou, Minzhong & Gan, Gary & Kang, Shaozhong, 2025. "Excessive irrigation-driven greening has triggered water shortages and compromised sustainability," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:3:p:352-:d:1353996. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.