IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v311y2025ics0378377425001192.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Excessive irrigation-driven greening has triggered water shortages and compromised sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Lu, Xiaoyao
  • Zou, Minzhong
  • Gan, Gary
  • Kang, Shaozhong

Abstract

Regional greening provides substantial benefits to ecological sustainability in drylands. However, extensive greening, driven by the complex interplay of agronomic practices and climate changes, has profoundly altered terrestrial water storage. Despite its importance, a comprehensive quantification of these impacts in dryland ecosystems remains insufficient. Here, terrestrial water storage changes in the inland arid region of Northwest China are investigated through Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission data combined with a water balance analysis. Machine learning is used to decompose the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) by agronomic drivers (irrigated cropland expansion (ICE) and increased nitrogen fertilizer (NFER)) and natural drivers (elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) and heightened reference evapotranspiration) to quantify the long-term impacts of regional greening (i.e., NDVI increases) on terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA). The results show a significant decline in TWSA since the 21st century, and water balance analysis attributed it to persistently high and rising evapotranspiration. Regional greening and heightened reference evapotranspiration, as primary catalysts intensifying regional evapotranspiration, synergistically propelled the depletion of TWSA, with regional greening exhibiting a stronger correlation with TWSA. Further, regional ICE-driven greening has contributed the most to the decline in TWSA, exceeding that of eCO2 and NFER. The sensitivity of TWSA to ICE-driven greening increased linearly as the regional drought index rose. Effective irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer management have improved crop growth and yields, but also increased evapotranspiration, accelerating the depletion of regional water resources. Ceasing the irrigation expansion will help to combat further decline in TWSA and enhance dryland ecological health.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Xiaoyao & Zou, Minzhong & Gan, Gary & Kang, Shaozhong, 2025. "Excessive irrigation-driven greening has triggered water shortages and compromised sustainability," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:311:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425001192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425001192
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109405?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liming Zhou & Yuhong Tian & Ranga B. Myneni & Philippe Ciais & Sassan Saatchi & Yi Y. Liu & Shilong Piao & Haishan Chen & Eric F. Vermote & Conghe Song & Taehee Hwang, 2014. "Widespread decline of Congo rainforest greenness in the past decade," Nature, Nature, vol. 509(7498), pages 86-90, May.
    2. Li, Zi-Zhen & Li, Wei-De & Li, Wen-Long, 2004. "Dry-period irrigation and fertilizer application affect water use and yield of spring wheat in semi-arid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 133-143, March.
    3. Kimberly A. Novick & Darren L. Ficklin & Paul C. Stoy & Christopher A. Williams & Gil Bohrer & A. Christopher Oishi & Shirley A. Papuga & Peter D. Blanken & Asko Noormets & Benjamin N. Sulman & Russel, 2016. "The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1023-1027, November.
    4. Singh, Yudhveer & Rao, Sajjan Singh & Regar, Panna Lal, 2010. "Deficit irrigation and nitrogen effects on seed cotton yield, water productivity and yield response factor in shallow soils of semi-arid environment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(7), pages 965-970, July.
    5. M. Rodell & J. S. Famiglietti & D. N. Wiese & J. T. Reager & H. K. Beaudoing & F. W. Landerer & M.-H. Lo, 2018. "Emerging trends in global freshwater availability," Nature, Nature, vol. 557(7707), pages 651-659, May.
    6. Xueying Li & Di Long & Bridget R. Scanlon & Michael E. Mann & Xingdong Li & Fuqiang Tian & Zhangli Sun & Guangqian Wang, 2022. "Climate change threatens terrestrial water storage over the Tibetan Plateau," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(9), pages 801-807, September.
    7. Vincent Humphrey & Jakob Zscheischler & Philippe Ciais & Lukas Gudmundsson & Stephen Sitch & Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2018. "Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate to observed changes in terrestrial water storage," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7720), pages 628-631, August.
    8. Meng Zhao & Geruo A & Jien Zhang & Isabella Velicogna & Cunzhu Liang & Zhiyong Li, 2021. "Ecological restoration impact on total terrestrial water storage," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 56-62, January.
    9. Meng Zhao & Geruo A & Yanlan Liu & Alexandra G. Konings, 2022. "Evapotranspiration frequently increases during droughts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(11), pages 1024-1030, November.
    10. Richard A. Betts & Olivier Boucher & Matthew Collins & Peter M. Cox & Peter D. Falloon & Nicola Gedney & Deborah L. Hemming & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & David M. H. Sexton & Mark J. Webb, 2007. "Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7157), pages 1037-1041, August.
    11. Alexis Berg & Kaighin A. McColl, 2021. "No projected global drylands expansion under greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 331-337, April.
    12. Nathaniel D. Mueller & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management," Nature, Nature, vol. 490(7419), pages 254-257, October.
    13. Yanlan Liu & Mukesh Kumar & Gabriel G. Katul & Xue Feng & Alexandra G. Konings, 2020. "Plant hydraulics accentuates the effect of atmospheric moisture stress on transpiration," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(7), pages 691-695, July.
    14. Chi Chen & Taejin Park & Xuhui Wang & Shilong Piao & Baodong Xu & Rajiv K. Chaturvedi & Richard Fuchs & Victor Brovkin & Philippe Ciais & Rasmus Fensholt & Hans Tømmervik & Govindasamy Bala & Zaichun , 2019. "China and India lead in greening of the world through land-use management," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 122-129, February.
    15. Yao Zhang & Pierre Gentine & Xiangzhong Luo & Xu Lian & Yanlan Liu & Sha Zhou & Anna M. Michalak & Wu Sun & Joshua B. Fisher & Shilong Piao & Trevor F. Keenan, 2022. "Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Kang, Shaozhong & Hao, Xinmei & Du, Taisheng & Tong, Ling & Su, Xiaoling & Lu, Hongna & Li, Xiaolin & Huo, Zailin & Li, Sien & Ding, Risheng, 2017. "Improving agricultural water productivity to ensure food security in China under changing environment: From research to practice," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 5-17.
    17. Jiang, Xuelian & Kang, Shaozhong & Tong, Ling & Li, Fusheng & Li, Donghao & Ding, Risheng & Qiu, Rangjian, 2014. "Crop coefficient and evapotranspiration of grain maize modified by planting density in an arid region of northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 135-143.
    18. Li, Wenlong & Li, Weide & Li, Zizhen, 2004. "Irrigation and fertilizer effects on water use and yield of spring wheat in semi-arid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 35-46, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sergiusz Pimenow & Olena Pimenowa & Piotr Prus & Aleksandra Niklas, 2025. "The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Sustainability of Regional Ecosystems: Current Challenges and Future Prospects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-42, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yao Zhang & Pierre Gentine & Xiangzhong Luo & Xu Lian & Yanlan Liu & Sha Zhou & Anna M. Michalak & Wu Sun & Joshua B. Fisher & Shilong Piao & Trevor F. Keenan, 2022. "Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Kang, Jian & Hao, Xinmei & Zhou, Huiping & Ding, Risheng, 2021. "An integrated strategy for improving water use efficiency by understanding physiological mechanisms of crops responding to water deficit: Present and prospect," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    3. Wang, Zongxia & Liu, Suxia, 2025. "Double disaggregation of the decline of terrestrial water storage for a highly cultivated dryland partially covered by glaciers," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    4. Li, Wenlong & Han, Xiaozhuo & Zhang, Yanyu & Li, Zizhen, 2007. "Effects of elevated CO2 concentration, irrigation and nitrogenous fertilizer application on the growth and yield of spring wheat in semi-arid areas," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 106-114, January.
    5. Wang, Chunyu & Li, Sien & Wu, Mousong & Zhang, Wenxin & Guo, Zhenyu & Huang, Siyu & Yang, Danni, 2023. "Co-regulation of temperature and moisture in the irrigated agricultural ecosystem productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    6. Wen Zhang & William K. Smith & Trevor F. Keenan & Matthew P. Dannenberg & Yang Li & Songhan Wang & John S. Kimball & David J. P. Moore, 2025. "Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Dang, Hongzhong & Han, Hui & Chen, Shuai & Li, Mingyang, 2021. "A fragile soil moisture environment exacerbates the climate change-related impacts on the water use by Mongolian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) in northern China: Long-term observations," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    8. Wakeyo, Mekonnen B. & Gardebroek, Cornelis, 2013. "Does water harvesting induce fertilizer use among smallholders? Evidence from Ethiopia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 54-63.
    9. Sharma, Bharat & Molden, D. & Cook, Simon, 2015. "Water use efficiency in agriculture: measurement, current situation and trends," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    10. Guoqiang Zhang & Bo Ming & Dongping Shen & Ruizhi Xie & Peng Hou & Jun Xue & Keru Wang & Shaokun Li, 2021. "Optimizing Grain Yield and Water Use Efficiency Based on the Relationship between Leaf Area Index and Evapotranspiration," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    11. Sharma, Bharat & Molden, D. & Cook, Simon, 2015. "Water use efficiency in agriculture: measurement, current situation and trends," IWMI Books, Reports H046807, International Water Management Institute.
    12. Xiangzhong Luo & Trevor F. Keenan, 2022. "Tropical extreme droughts drive long-term increase in atmospheric CO2 growth rate variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. Yu, Xingjiao & Qian, Long & Wang, Wen’e & Hu, Xiaotao & Dong, Jianhua & Pi, Yingying & Fan, Kai, 2023. "Comprehensive evaluation of terrestrial evapotranspiration from different models under extreme condition over conterminous United States," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    14. Zexi Shen & Qiang Zhang & Vijay P. Singh & Yadu Pokhrel & Jianping Li & Chong-Yu Xu & Wenhuan Wu, 2022. "Drying in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean contributed to terrestrial water storage depletion across Eurasia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Feng, Yu & Hao, Weiping & Gao, Lili & Li, Haoru & Gong, Daozhi & Cui, Ningbo, 2019. "Comparison of maize water consumption at different scales between mulched and non-mulched croplands," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 315-324.
    16. Ji, Xi-Bin & Kang, Er-Si & Chen, Ren-Sheng & Zhao, Wen-Zhi & Zhang, Zhi-Hui & Jin, Bo-Wen, 2007. "A mathematical model for simulating water balances in cropped sandy soil with conventional flood irrigation applied," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 337-346, February.
    17. Singh, Ajay & Krause, Peter & Panda, Sudhindra N. & Flugel, Wolfgang-Albert, 2010. "Rising water table: A threat to sustainable agriculture in an irrigated semi-arid region of Haryana, India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(10), pages 1443-1451, October.
    18. Feng, Dingrao & Bao, Wenkai & Yang, Yuanyuan & Fu, Meichen, 2021. "How do government policies promote greening? Evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    19. Zhou, Hong & Zhao, Wen zhi, 2019. "Modeling soil water balance and irrigation strategies in a flood-irrigated wheat-maize rotation system. A case in dry climate, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 286-302.
    20. David L. Miller & Sebastian Wolf & Joshua B. Fisher & Benjamin F. Zaitchik & Jingfeng Xiao & Trevor F. Keenan, 2023. "Increased photosynthesis during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:311:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425001192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.