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Historical Changes and Future Trajectories of Deforestation in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru Landscape (Democratic Republic of the Congo)

Author

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  • Joël Masimo Kabuanga

    (Département d’Aménagement des Écosystèmes, Faculté de Gestion des Ressources Naturelles Renouvelables, Université de Kisangani, Kisangani P.O. Box 2012, Democratic Republic of the Congo
    Royal Zoological Society of Antwerp (KMDA) & JURISTRALE, 25, avenue de l’OUA-Ngaliema, P.O. Box 16576 Kin 1, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo)

  • Onésime Mubenga Kankonda

    (Département d’Aménagement des Écosystèmes, Faculté de Gestion des Ressources Naturelles Renouvelables, Université de Kisangani, Kisangani P.O. Box 2012, Democratic Republic of the Congo
    Centre de Surveillance de la Biodiversité, Université de Kisangani, Kisangani P.O. Box 2012, Democratic Republic of the Congo)

  • Mehdi Saqalli

    (CNRS (UMR 5602 GEODE) Maison de la Recherche de l’Université du Mirail, 5, Allées A. Machado, CEDEX 1, 31058 Toulouse, France)

  • Nicolas Maestripieri

    (TerraNIS, 12 Avenue de l’Europe, 31520 Ramonville, France)

  • Thomas Mumuni Bilintoh

    (School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA 01610, USA)

  • Jean-Pierre Mate Mweru

    (Ecole Post-Régionale d’Aménagement et de Gestion Intégrés des Forêts et des Territoires Tropicaux (ERAIFT), Université de Kinshasa, Kinshasa P.O. Box 15.373, Democratic Republic of the Congo)

  • Aimé Balimbaki Liama

    (Institut Congolais pour la Conservation de la Nature (ICCN), 13 Avenue des Cliniques, Kinshasa P.O. Box 868 Kin1, Democratic Republic of the Congo)

  • Radar Nishuli

    (Institut Congolais pour la Conservation de la Nature (ICCN), 13 Avenue des Cliniques, Kinshasa P.O. Box 868 Kin1, Democratic Republic of the Congo)

  • Landing Mané

    (Satellite Observatory of the Forests of Central Africa, 14, Sergent Moke—Q/Socimat, Concession Safricas, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo)

Abstract

The Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (IEAL) is experiencing deforestation and forest degradation. This deforestation is at the root of many environmental disturbances in a region characterized by endemism in biodiversity. The importance of this article is to provide useful information for those who wish to discuss a model that can be replicated for other territories affected by deforestation and changes in natural and anthropogenic forest structure. This article focuses on the triangulation of spatialized prospective scenarios in order to identify future trajectories based on the knowledge of historical dynamics through the diachronic analysis of three satellite images (2003–2010–2014–2016). The scenarios were designed in a supervised model implemented in the DINAMICA EGO platform. The three scenarios: business as-usual (BAU), rapid economic growth (REG) and sustainable management of the environment (SME), extrapolating current trends, show that by 2061 this landscape will always be dominated forests (+84%). Old-growth forests occupy 74.2% of the landscape area in the BAU scenario, 81.4% in the SEM scenario and 61.2% in the REG scenario. The SEM scenario gives hope that restoration and preservation of biodiversity priority habitats is still possible if policy makers become aware of it.

Suggested Citation

  • Joël Masimo Kabuanga & Onésime Mubenga Kankonda & Mehdi Saqalli & Nicolas Maestripieri & Thomas Mumuni Bilintoh & Jean-Pierre Mate Mweru & Aimé Balimbaki Liama & Radar Nishuli & Landing Mané, 2021. "Historical Changes and Future Trajectories of Deforestation in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru Landscape (Democratic Republic of the Congo)," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:10:p:1042-:d:649200
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Courage Kamusoko & Yukio Wada & Toru Furuya & Shunsuke Tomimura & Mitsuru Nasu & Khamma Homsysavath, 2013. "Simulating Future Forest Cover Changes in Pakxeng District, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR): Implications for Sustainable Forest Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, January.
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    4. Abdus Samie & Xiangzheng Deng & Siqi Jia & Dongdong Chen, 2017. "Scenario-Based Simulation on Dynamics of Land-Use-Land-Cover Change in Punjab Province, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-17, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qing Liu & Dongdong Yang & Lei Cao & Bruce Anderson, 2022. "Assessment and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Tropics: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-24, February.
    2. L'Roe, Jessica & Detoeuf, Diane & Wieland, Michelle & Ikati, Bernard & Enduyi Kimuha, Moïse & Sandrin, François & Angauko Sukari, Odette & Nzale Nkumu, Junior & Kretser, Heidi E. & Wilkie, David, 2023. "Large-scale monitoring in the DRC’s Ituri forest with a locally informed multidimensional well-being index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. L'Roe, Jessica & Shanley Barr, Grayson & Detoeuf, Diane & Wieland, Michelle & Ikati, Bernard & Enduyi Kimuha, Moïse & Sandrin, François & Bilua, Delphin & Bondeko, Gerard & Londza, Yves & Bakabana, Pa, 2023. "Comparing forest product harvest rates and livelihood activities among migrant and Indigenous households in the Congo Basin," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

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