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Time-Varying Risk and the Relation between Idiosyncratic Risk and Stock Return

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  • Chengbo Fu

    (School of Business, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9, Canada)

Abstract

This paper studies the historical time-varying dynamics of risk for individual stocks in the U.S. market. Total risk of an individual stock is decomposed into two components, systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk, and both components are studied separately. We start from the historical trend in the magnitude of risk and then turn to the relation between idiosyncratic risk and stock returns. The result shows that both components of risk for individual stocks are changing over time. They increased from the 1960s to the 1990s/2000s and then declined until today. This paper also studies the risk-return tradeoff by investigating the relation between idiosyncratic risk and stock return in the long run. Stocks are sorted into portfolios for analysis and the whole sample period is further decomposed into decades for subgroup analysis. Multivariable regressions are used to study this relation as we control for beta, size, book-to-market ratio, momentum and liquidity. From a historical point of view, we show that the relation between idiosyncratic risk and stock return is time-varying, and it did not exist in certain decades. The results indicate that the risk-return tradeoff also varied in history.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengbo Fu, 2021. "Time-Varying Risk and the Relation between Idiosyncratic Risk and Stock Return," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:9:p:432-:d:631815
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Vo, Xuan Vinh & Ellis, Craig, 2018. "International financial integration: Stock return linkages and volatility transmission between Vietnam and advanced countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 19-27.
    4. Aabo, Tom & Pantzalis, Christos & Park, Jung Chul, 2017. "Idiosyncratic volatility: An indicator of noise trading?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 136-151.
    5. Robert F. Stambaugh & Jianfeng Yu & Yu Yuan, 2015. "Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1903-1948, October.
    6. Vo, Xuan Vinh & Phan, Dang Bao Anh, 2019. "Herd behavior and idiosyncratic volatility in a frontier market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 321-330.
    7. Peter Molnár, 2016. "High-low range in GARCH models of stock return volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4977-4991, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seyed Reza Tabatabaei Poudeh & Sungchul Choi & Chengbo Fu, 2022. "The Effect of COVID-19 on the Relationship between Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Stock Returns," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-11, March.

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