IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v12y2019i4p168-d284029.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global Asset Allocation Strategy Using a Hidden Markov Model

Author

Listed:
  • Eun-chong Kim

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Korea)

  • Han-wook Jeong

    (School of Economics and Trade, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea)

  • Nak-young Lee

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Korea)

Abstract

This study uses the hidden Markov model (HMM) to identify the phases of individual assets and proposes an investment strategy using price trends effectively. We conducted empirical analysis for 15 years from January 2004 to December 2018 on universes of global assets divided into 10 classes and the more detailed 22 classes. Both universes have been shown to have superior performance in strategy using HMM in common. By examining the change in the weight of the portfolio, the weight change between the asset classes occurs dynamically. This shows that HMM increases the weight of stocks when stock price rises and increases the weight of bonds when stock price falls. As a result of analyzing the performance, it was shown that the HMM effectively reflects the asset selection effect in Jensen’s alpha, Fama’s Net Selectivity and Treynor-Mazuy model. In addition, the strategy of the HMM has positive gamma value even in the Treynor-Mazuy model. Ultimately, HMM is expected to enable stable management compared to existing momentum strategies by having asset selection effect and market forecasting ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Eun-chong Kim & Han-wook Jeong & Nak-young Lee, 2019. "Global Asset Allocation Strategy Using a Hidden Markov Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:4:p:168-:d:284029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/4/168/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/4/168/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    2. Chordia, Tarun & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2006. "Earnings and price momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 627-656, June.
    3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    4. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
    5. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    6. Zhu, Yingzi & Zhou, Guofu, 2009. "Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 519-544, June.
    7. James M. Poterba & John B. Shoven, 2002. "Exchange-Traded Funds: A New Investment Option for Taxable Investors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 422-427, May.
    8. Yusif Simaan, 1997. "Estimation Risk in Portfolio Selection: The Mean Variance Model Versus the Mean Absolute Deviation Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(10), pages 1437-1446, October.
    9. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    10. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    11. Nguyet Nguyen, 2018. "Hidden Markov Model for Stock Trading," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, March.
    12. Elliott, Robert J. & Siu, Tak Kuen & Badescu, Alex, 2010. "On mean-variance portfolio selection under a hidden Markovian regime-switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 678-686, May.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1972. "Components of Investment Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 551-567, June.
    14. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2012. "Is momentum really momentum?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 429-453.
    15. Joëlle Miffre, 2007. "Country-specific ETFs: An efficient approach to global asset allocation," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(2), pages 112-122, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anton Gerunov, 2023. "Stock Returns Under Different Market Regimes: An Application of Markov Switching Models to 24 European Indices," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 18-35.
    2. Perry Sadorsky, 2021. "Predicting Gold and Silver Price Direction Using Tree-Based Classifiers," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Matthew Wang & Yi-Hong Lin & Ilya Mikhelson, 2020. "Regime-Switching Factor Investing with Hidden Markov Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Lolea Iulian Cornel & Stamule Simona, 2021. "Trading using Hidden Markov Models during COVID-19 turbulences," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 16(4), pages 334-351, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    2. Ding Du & Karen Craft Denning & Xiaobing Zhao, 2014. "Market states and momentum in sector exchange-traded funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(4), pages 223-237, August.
    3. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2018. "Equity market momentum: A synthesis of the literature and suggestions for future work," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 291-296.
    4. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    5. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, February.
    6. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2016. "Commodities momentum: A behavioral perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 133-150.
    7. Ardila-Alvarez, Diego & Forro, Zalan & Sornette, Didier, 2021. "The acceleration effect and Gamma factor in asset pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 569(C).
    8. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Kai, 2015. "Profitability of time series momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 140-157.
    9. Jim Kyung-Soo Liew & Ahmad Ajakh, 2020. "Volatility-Adjusted 60/40 versus 100—New Risk Investing Paradigm," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-6, August.
    10. Chen, Zhanhui & Yang, Bowen, 2019. "In search of preference shock risks: Evidence from longevity risks and momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 225-249.
    11. Hong-Yi Chen & Sheng-Syan Chen & Chin-Wen Hsin & Cheng Few Lee, 2020. "Does Revenue Momentum Drive or Ride Earnings or Price Momentum?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 94, pages 3263-3318, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Gao, Ya & Han, Xing & Li, Youwei & Xiong, Xiong, 2019. "Overnight momentum, informational shocks, and late informed trading in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Kim, Junyong, 2024. "Zoom in on momentum," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Shah Saeed Hassan Chowdhury & Rashida Sharmin & M Arifur Rahman, 2019. "Presence and Sources of Contrarian Profits in the Bangladesh Stock Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 84-104, February.
    15. Martin H. Schmidt, 2017. "Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(2), pages 201-256, May.
    16. Jiaqi Guo & Peng Li & Youwei Li, 2022. "What Can Explain Momentum? Evidence from Decomposition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 6184-6218, August.
    17. Breloer, Bernhard & Scholz, Hendrik & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "Performance of international and global equity mutual funds: Do country momentum and sector momentum matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 58-77.
    18. Gao, Ya & Guo, Bin & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Signed momentum in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    20. Conover, C. Mitchell & Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R. & Szakmary, Andrew C., 2017. "Emerging markets: Is the trend still your friend?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 128-148.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:4:p:168-:d:284029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.