IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v22y2025i9p1349-d1736605.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Heatwave-Related Hospitalizations: A Case Study in Matam, Senegal

Author

Listed:
  • Mory Toure

    (Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM), Dakar BP 8184, Senegal
    Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Ocean–Simeon Fongang (LPAO-SF), Ecole Superieure Polytechnique, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD), Dakar BP 5085, Senegal)

  • Ibrahima Sy

    (Ministère de la Santé et de l’Action Sociale, Dakar BP 4024, Senegal
    Departement de Geographie, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD), Dakar BP 5005, Senegal
    Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar BP 15532, Senegal)

  • Ibrahima Diouf

    (Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Ocean–Simeon Fongang (LPAO-SF), Ecole Superieure Polytechnique, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD), Dakar BP 5085, Senegal
    Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université de Labe, Labe BP 210, Guinea)

  • Ousmane Gueye

    (Centre Hospitalier Régional El Hadji Ibrahima Niass (CHREIN), Kaolack BP 24030, Senegal)

  • Endalkachew Bekele

    (National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), College Park, MD 20740, USA)

  • Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan

    (National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), College Park, MD 20740, USA)

  • Marie Jeanne Sambou

    (Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Ocean–Simeon Fongang (LPAO-SF), Ecole Superieure Polytechnique, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD), Dakar BP 5085, Senegal)

  • Papa Ngor Ndiaye

    (Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM), Dakar BP 8184, Senegal)

  • Wassila Mamadou Thiaw

    (National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), College Park, MD 20740, USA)

  • Daouda Badiane

    (Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Ocean–Simeon Fongang (LPAO-SF), Ecole Superieure Polytechnique, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD), Dakar BP 5085, Senegal)

  • Aida Diongue-Niang

    (Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM), Dakar BP 8184, Senegal)

  • Amadou Thierno Gaye

    (Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Ocean–Simeon Fongang (LPAO-SF), Ecole Superieure Polytechnique, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD), Dakar BP 5085, Senegal)

  • Ousmane Ndiaye

    (African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), Niamey BP 13184, Niger)

  • Adama Faye

    (Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD), Dakar BP 5005, Senegal)

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of heatwaves on hospital admissions in the Matam region of Senegal by combining climatic indices with machine learning methods. Using daily maximum temperature (TMAX) and heat index (HI), heatwave events were identified from 2017 to 2022. Hospital data from Ourossogui Regional Hospital were analyzed, and three predictive models, Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), were compared. A bootstrapping approach with 1000 iterations was used to evaluate model robustness. The findings reveal a significant delayed effect of heatwaves, with increased hospitalizations occurring three to five days after the event. RF outperformed the other models with R 2 values ranging from 0.51 to 0.72. These findings highlight the need to enhance heatwave monitoring and promote the integration of impact-based climate forecasting into health early warning systems, particularly to protect vulnerable groups such as the elderly, children, and outdoor workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Mory Toure & Ibrahima Sy & Ibrahima Diouf & Ousmane Gueye & Endalkachew Bekele & Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan & Marie Jeanne Sambou & Papa Ngor Ndiaye & Wassila Mamadou Thiaw & Daouda Badiane & Aida Diongue-, 2025. "Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Heatwave-Related Hospitalizations: A Case Study in Matam, Senegal," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 22(9), pages 1-22, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:22:y:2025:i:9:p:1349-:d:1736605
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/22/9/1349/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/22/9/1349/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mengmeng Li & Shaohua Gu & Peng Bi & Jun Yang & Qiyong Liu, 2015. "Heat Waves and Morbidity: Current Knowledge and Further Direction-A Comprehensive Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-28, May.
    2. Leonidas G. Ioannou & Konstantinos Mantzios & Lydia Tsoutsoubi & Zoe Panagiotaki & Areti K. Kapnia & Ursa Ciuha & Lars Nybo & Andreas D. Flouris & Igor B. Mekjavic, 2021. "Effect of a Simulated Heat Wave on Physiological Strain and Labour Productivity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Fadly Syah Arsad & Rozita Hod & Norfazilah Ahmad & Rohaida Ismail & Norlen Mohamed & Mazni Baharom & Yelmizaitun Osman & Mohd Firdaus Mohd Radi & Fredolin Tangang, 2022. "The Impact of Heatwaves on Mortality and Morbidity and the Associated Vulnerability Factors: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Simon N. Wood, 2004. "Stable and Efficient Multiple Smoothing Parameter Estimation for Generalized Additive Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 673-686, January.
    5. Elizabeth G. Hanna & Peter W. Tait, 2015. "Limitations to Thermoregulation and Acclimatization Challenge Human Adaptation to Global Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-41, July.
    6. Lucille Alonso & Florent Renard, 2020. "A Comparative Study of the Physiological and Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities to Heat Waves of the Population of the Metropolis of Lyon (France) in a Climate Change Context," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-21, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiandong Liu & Guangsheng Zhou & Hans W. Linderholm & Yanling Song & De-Li Liu & Yanbo Shen & Yanxiang Liu & Jun Du, 2022. "Optimal Strategy on Radiation Estimation for Calculating Universal Thermal Climate Index in Tourism Cities of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-22, July.
    2. Kyusik Kim & Jihoon Jung & Claire Schollaert & June T. Spector, 2021. "A Comparative Assessment of Cooling Center Preparedness across Twenty-Five U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Magalie Técher & Hassan Ait Haddou & Rahim Aguejdad, 2023. "Urban Heat Island’s Vulnerability Assessment by Integrating Urban Planning Policies: A Case Study of Montpellier Méditerranée Metropolitan Area, France," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Martina S. Ragettli & Apolline Saucy & Benjamin Flückiger & Danielle Vienneau & Kees de Hoogh & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera & Christian Schindler & Martin Röösli, 2023. "Explorative Assessment of the Temperature–Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    5. Christopher Muller & Daniel Schrage, 2014. "Mass Imprisonment and Trust in the Law," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 651(1), pages 139-158, January.
    6. Tetsuya Tsurumi & Shunsuke Managi, 2025. "Income and Subjective Well-Being: The Importance of Index Choice for Sustainable Economic Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-32, June.
    7. Fiaschi, Davide & Lavezzi, Andrea Mario, 2007. "Nonlinear economic growth: Some theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 271-290, September.
    8. Alla A. Petukhina & Raphael C. G. Reule & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2021. "Rise of the machines? Intraday high-frequency trading patterns of cryptocurrencies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-2), pages 8-30, January.
    9. Longhi, Christian & Musolesi, Antonio & Baumont, Catherine, 2014. "Modeling structural change in the European metropolitan areas during the process of economic integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 395-407.
    10. Koji Karato & Oleksandr Movshuk & Chihiro Shimizu, 2015. "Semiparametric Model of Hedonic Housing Prices in Japan," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 325-345, December.
    11. Strasak, Alexander M. & Umlauf, Nikolaus & Pfeiffer, Ruth M. & Lang, Stefan, 2011. "Comparing penalized splines and fractional polynomials for flexible modelling of the effects of continuous predictor variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 1540-1551, April.
    12. Pierre Masselot & Fateh Chebana & Taha B. M. J. Ouarda & Diane Bélanger & Pierre Gosselin, 2022. "Data-Enhancement Strategies in Weather-Related Health Studies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-13, January.
    13. E. Zanini & E. Eastoe & M. J. Jones & D. Randell & P. Jonathan, 2020. "Flexible covariate representations for extremes," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), August.
    14. Daniel Melser & Robert J. Hill, 2019. "Residential Real Estate, Risk, Return and Diversification: Some Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 111-146, July.
    15. Letian Li & Boyang Sun & Zhuqiang Hu & Jun Zhang & Song Gao & Haifeng Bian & Jiansong Wu, 2022. "Heat Strain Evaluation of Power Grid Outdoor Workers Based on a Human Bioheat Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-17, June.
    16. Tetsuya Tsurumi & Rintaro Yamaguchi & Kazuki Kagohashi & Shunsuke Managi, 2021. "Are Cognitive, Affective, and Eudaimonic Dimensions of Subjective Well-Being Differently Related to Consumption? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 2499-2522, August.
    17. Maciej Berȩsewicz & Dagmara Nikulin, 2021. "Estimation of the size of informal employment based on administrative records with non‐ignorable selection mechanism," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(3), pages 667-690, June.
    18. repec:osf:socarx:xvucn_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Davide Fiaschi, 2004. "Nonlinear Growth and the Productivity Slowdown," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 162, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. Lexyn J. Iliscupidez & Liz Dennett & Stuart Lau & Alvaro Osornio Vargas & Shelby S. Yamamoto, 2025. "Children and Climate Change Vulnerability Indices: a Scoping Review," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 18(4), pages 1467-1494, August.
    21. Margaret C. Morrissey & Zachary Yukio Kerr & Gabrielle J. Brewer & Faton Tishukaj & Douglas J. Casa & Rebecca L. Stearns, 2023. "Analysis of Exertion-Related Injuries and Fatalities in Laborers in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-14, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:22:y:2025:i:9:p:1349-:d:1736605. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.