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Effectiveness of Intervention Strategies on MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in South Korea, 2015: Simulations on the Network Based on the Real-World Contact Data

Author

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  • Yunhwan Kim

    (College of General Education, Kookmin University, Seoul 01160, Korea)

  • Hohyung Ryu

    (Department of Mathematics, Graduate School, Kyung Hee University, Seoul 02447, Korea)

  • Sunmi Lee

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104, Korea)

Abstract

The MERS-CoV spread in South Korea in 2015 was not only the largest outbreak of MERS-CoV in the region other than the Middle East but also a historic epidemic in South Korea. Thus, investigation of the MERS-CoV transmission dynamics, especially by agent-based modeling, would be meaningful for devising intervention strategies for novel infectious diseases. In this study, an agent-based model on MERS-CoV transmission in South Korea in 2015 was built and analyzed. The prominent characteristic of this model was that it built the simulation environment based on the real-world contact tracing network, which can be characterized as being scale-free. In the simulations, we explored the effectiveness of three possible intervention scenarios; mass quarantine, isolation, and isolation combined with acquaintance quarantine. The differences in MERS-CoV transmission dynamics by the number of links of the index case agent were examined. The simulation results indicate that isolation combined with acquaintance quarantine is more effective than others, and they also suggest the key role of super-spreaders in MERS-CoV transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunhwan Kim & Hohyung Ryu & Sunmi Lee, 2021. "Effectiveness of Intervention Strategies on MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in South Korea, 2015: Simulations on the Network Based on the Real-World Contact Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-11, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:7:p:3530-:d:525965
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yunhwan Kim & Hohyung Ryu & Sunmi Lee, 2018. "Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Alison P. Galvani & Robert M. May, 2005. "Dimensions of superspreading," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 293-295, November.
    3. Seoyun Choe & Hee-Sung Kim & Sunmi Lee, 2020. "Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-14, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Das, Saikat & Bose, Indranil & Sarkar, Uttam Kumar, 2023. "Predicting the outbreak of epidemics using a network-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 819-831.

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