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Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models

Author

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  • Seoyun Choe

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Hee-Sung Kim

    (Department of Internal Medicine, Chungbuk National University Hospital, Chungbuk National University College of Medicine, Cheongju 28644, Korea
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Sunmi Lee

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104, Korea)

Abstract

South Korea has learned a valuable lesson from the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus outbreak in 2015. The 2015 MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea was the largest outbreak outside the Middle Eastern countries and was characterized as a nosocomial infection and a superspreading event. To assess the characteristics of a super spreading event, we specifically analyze the behaviors and epidemiological features of superspreaders. Furthermore, we employ a branching process model to understand a significantly high level of heterogeneity in generating secondary cases. The existing model of the branching process (Lloyd-Smith model) is used to incorporate individual heterogeneity into the model, and the key epidemiological components (the reproduction number and the dispersive parameter) are estimated through the empirical transmission tree of the MERS-CoV data. We also investigate the impact of control intervention strategies on the MERS-CoV dynamics of the Lloyd-Smith model. Our results highlight the roles of superspreaders in a high level of heterogeneity. This indicates that the conditions within hospitals as well as multiple hospital visits were the crucial factors for superspreading events of the 2015 MERS-CoV outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Seoyun Choe & Hee-Sung Kim & Sunmi Lee, 2020. "Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:17:p:6137-:d:403138
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhi-Qiang Xia & Juan Zhang & Ya-Kui Xue & Gui-Quan Sun & Zhen Jin, 2015. "Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-13, December.
    2. J. O. Lloyd-Smith & S. J. Schreiber & P. E. Kopp & W. M. Getz, 2005. "Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 355-359, November.
    3. Yunhwan Kim & Hohyung Ryu & Sunmi Lee, 2018. "Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Alison P. Galvani & Robert M. May, 2005. "Dimensions of superspreading," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 293-295, November.
    5. Krishna Saha & Sudhir Paul, 2005. "Bias-Corrected Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Negative Binomial Dispersion Parameter," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 179-185, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yunhwan Kim & Hohyung Ryu & Sunmi Lee, 2021. "Effectiveness of Intervention Strategies on MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in South Korea, 2015: Simulations on the Network Based on the Real-World Contact Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-11, March.

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