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Analysis Factors That Influence Escalator-Related Injuries in Metro Stations Based on Bayesian Networks: A Case Study in China

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  • Yingying Xing

    (College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the State Ministry of Education, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Rail Infrastructure Durability and System Safety, Shanghai 201804, China)

  • Shengdi Chen

    (School of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Haigang Street, Shanghai 201306, China)

  • Shengxue Zhu

    (Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Traffic and Transportation Security, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huaian 223003, China)

  • Jian Lu

    (College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the State Ministry of Education, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Rail Infrastructure Durability and System Safety, Shanghai 201804, China)

Abstract

Escalator-related injuries have become an important issue in daily metro operation. To reduce the probability and severity of escalator-related injuries, this study conducted a probability and severity analysis of escalator-related injuries by using a Bayesian network to identify the risk factors that affect the escalator safety in metro stations. The Bayesian network structure was constructed based on expert knowledge and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory, and further modified based on conditional-independence test. Then, 950 escalator-related injuries were used to estimate the posterior probabilities of the Bayesian network with expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm. The results of probability analysis indicate that the most influential factor in four passenger behaviors is failing to stand firm ( p = 0.48), followed by carrying out other tasks ( p = 0.32), not holding the handrail ( p = 0.23), and another passenger’s movement ( p = 0.20). Women ( p = 0.64) and elderly people (aged 66 years and above, p = 0.48) are more likely to be involved in escalator-related injuries. Riding an escalator with company ( p = 0.63) has a relatively high likelihood of resulting in escalator-related injuries. The results from the severity analysis show that head and neck injuries seem to be more serious and are more likely to require an ambulance for treatment. Passengers who suffer from entrapment injury tend to claim for compensation. Severe injuries, as expected, significantly increase the probability of a claim for compensation. These findings could provide valuable references for metro operation corporations to understand the characteristics of escalator-related injuries and develop effective injury prevention measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Yingying Xing & Shengdi Chen & Shengxue Zhu & Jian Lu, 2020. "Analysis Factors That Influence Escalator-Related Injuries in Metro Stations Based on Bayesian Networks: A Case Study in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:2:p:481-:d:307796
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Aminreza Neshat & Biswajeet Pradhan, 2015. "Risk assessment of groundwater pollution with a new methodological framework: application of Dempster–Shafer theory and GIS," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1565-1585, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongwei Li & Yuxi Wang & Yingying Xing & Xiaochen Zhao & Ke Wang, 2021. "Contributing Factors Affecting the Severity of Metro Escalator Injuries in the Guangzhou Metro, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Ying Lu & Yueming Lu & Jingwen Wang & Xibei Zhang & Wangsheng Chen, 2022. "Analysis on Causative Factors and Evolution Paths of Blast Furnace Gas Leak Accident," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-20, August.

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