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Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effects of Fertility Rate: Analysis of 26,224 Married Women in Taiwan

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  • I-Shiang Tzeng

    (Department of Research, Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation, New Taipei City 23142, Taiwan
    Department of Statistic, National Taipei University, Taipei 10478, Taiwan
    Department of Applied Mathematics; Department of Exercise and Health Promotion, Chinese Culture University, Taipei 11114, Taiwan)

  • Kuo-Hu Chen

    (Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation, New Taipei City 23142, Taiwan)

  • Yungling L. Lee

    (Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Health, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10055, Taiwan
    Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan)

  • Wen-Shan Yang

    (Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan)

Abstract

Taiwan and a few Asian societies have had among the lowest fertility rates in the world for the past decade. Understanding the reasons behind the low fertility and designing policies accordingly to improve fertility has been a priority of governments in the region. It what follows we examine the low fertility rate in Taiwan by studying the trend of actual fertility rate and desired fertility rate in Taiwan using an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Using the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice (KAP) of contraception survey data between 1973 and 2004, we applied APC analyses on the actual fertility rate and desired fertility rate of married women. We found that youngest cohorts (the mid-cohort year 1983) had 10% higher actual fertility and 15% higher desired fertility compared to those who were born in 1959–1965, respectively. Additionally, we attributed current lowest-low fertility (at or below 1.3) to late marriages. There is a lag between the actual and desired fertility rates in KAP survey due to tempo effect. Furthermore, the trends of the cohort effects of both fertility rates in KAP surveys are reversing in Taiwan. Consequently, increase total fertility rate (TFR) should encourage marriage among the marriageable population and reward married and childbearing households.

Suggested Citation

  • I-Shiang Tzeng & Kuo-Hu Chen & Yungling L. Lee & Wen-Shan Yang, 2019. "Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effects of Fertility Rate: Analysis of 26,224 Married Women in Taiwan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:24:p:4952-:d:294887
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Kai-Wen Cheng, 2011. "The Effect of Contraceptive Knowledge on Fertility: The Roles of Mass Media and Social Networks," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 257-267, June.
    4. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition [Fécondité, capital humain et croissance économique au cours de la transition démographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 159-182, May.
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    2. Lidan Yang & Jiahong Guo & Shixiong Cao, 2024. "What structural factors have held back China's birth rate?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 565-578, January.
    3. Luqi Wang & Weibing Wang, 2021. "Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-11, May.

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