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Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe

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  • Jan C. Semenza

    (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Tomtebodavagen 11A, SE-171 83 Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract

Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan C. Semenza, 2015. "Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:6:p:6333-6351:d:50573
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shlomit Paz & Jan C. Semenza, 2013. "Environmental Drivers of West Nile Fever Epidemiology in Europe and Western Asia—A Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Samir Bhatt & Peter W. Gething & Oliver J. Brady & Jane P. Messina & Andrew W. Farlow & Catherine L. Moyes & John M. Drake & John S. Brownstein & Anne G. Hoen & Osman Sankoh & Monica F. Myers & Dylan , 2013. "The global distribution and burden of dengue," Nature, Nature, vol. 496(7446), pages 504-507, April.
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    5. Semenza, J.C. & Giesecke, J., 2008. "Intervening to reduce inequalities in infections in Europe," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 98(5), pages 787-792.
    6. Jan C. Semenza & Dragoslav Domanović, 2013. "Blood supply under threat," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 432-435, May.
    7. Stephanie Margarete Thomas & Nils Benjamin Tjaden & Sanne Van den Bos & Carl Beierkuhnlein, 2014. "Implementing Cargo Movement into Climate Based Risk Assessment of Vector-Borne Diseases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
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    10. Anthony J. McMichael, 2013. "Impediments to Comprehensive Research on Climate Change and Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-10, November.
    11. Annelise Tran & Grégory L'Ambert & Guillaume Lacour & Romain Benoît & Marie Demarchi & Myriam Cros & Priscilla Cailly & Mélaine Aubry-Kientz & Thomas Balenghien & Pauline Ezanno, 2013. "A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-22, April.
    12. Gordon L. Nichols & Yvonne Andersson & Elisabet Lindgren & Isabelle Devaux & Jan C. Semenza, 2014. "European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-43, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandra Sawatzky & Ashlee Cunsolo & Andria Jones-Bitton & Jacqueline Middleton & Sherilee L. Harper, 2018. "Responding to Climate and Environmental Change Impacts on Human Health via Integrated Surveillance in the Circumpolar North: A Systematic Realist Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-37, November.
    2. Mary Fox & Christopher Zuidema & Bridget Bauman & Thomas Burke & Mary Sheehan, 2019. "Integrating Public Health into Climate Change Policy and Planning: State of Practice Update," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Panagiotis Pergantas & Nikos E. Papanikolaou & Chrisovalantis Malesios & Andreas Tsatsaris & Marios Kondakis & Iokasti Perganta & Yiannis Tselentis & Nikos Demiris, 2021. "Towards a Semi-Automatic Early Warning System for Vector-Borne Diseases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Samuel Sellers & Kristie L. Ebi, 2017. "Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.

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