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Three Environments, One Problem: Forecasting Water Temperature in Central Europe in Response to Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Mariusz Ptak

    (Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, Krygowskiego 10, 61-680 Poznań, Poland)

  • Mariusz Sojka

    (Department of Land Improvement, Environmental Development and Spatial Management, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Piątkowska 94E, 60-649 Poznań, Poland)

  • Katarzyna Szyga-Pluta

    (Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Krygowskiego 10, 61-680 Poznań, Poland)

  • Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen

    (School of Energy and Environment, University of Phayao, Phayao 56000, Thailand
    Atmospheric Pollution and Climate Research Unit, School of Energy and Environment, University of Phayao, Phayao 56000, Thailand)

Abstract

Water temperature is a fundamental parameter influencing a range of biotic and abiotic processes occurring within various components of the hydrosphere. This study presents a multi-step, data-driven predictive modeling framework to estimate water temperatures for the period 2021–2100 in three aquatic environments in Central Europe: the Odra River, the Szczecin Lagoon, and the Baltic Sea. The framework integrates Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Random Sample Consensus (RANSAC) regression, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Random Forest (RF) machine learning models. To assess the performance of the models, the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error ( MAE ), and root mean square error ( RMSE ) were used. The results showed that the application of statistical downscaling methods improved the prediction of air temperatures with respect to the BMA. Moreover, the RF method was used to predict water temperature. The best model performance was obtained for the Baltic Sea and the lowest for the Odra River. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenario-based simulations, projected air temperature increases in the period 2021–2100 could range from 1.5 °C to 1.7 °C and 4.7 to 5.1 °C. In contrast, the increase in water temperatures by 2100 will be between 1.2 °C and 1.6 °C (SSP2-4.5 scenario) and between 3.5 °C and 4.9 °C (SSP5-8.5).

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Ptak & Mariusz Sojka & Katarzyna Szyga-Pluta & Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, 2025. "Three Environments, One Problem: Forecasting Water Temperature in Central Europe in Response to Climate Change," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-22, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:7:y:2025:i:2:p:24-:d:1667432
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, 2023. "Advancements in Downscaling Global Climate Model Temperature Data in Southeast Asia: A Machine Learning Approach," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Christoph Schär & Pier Luigi Vidale & Daniel Lüthi & Christoph Frei & Christian Häberli & Mark A. Liniger & Christof Appenzeller, 2004. "The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6972), pages 332-336, January.
    3. Mariusz Ptak & Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Mariusz Sojka, 2024. "Historical and Future Changes in Water Temperature in the Pilica River (Central Europe) in Response to Global Warming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-19, November.
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