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Climate Change and Mortality in Vienna—A Human Biometeorological Analysis Based on Regional Climate Modeling

Author

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  • Stefan Muthers

    (Meteorological Institute, University of Freiburg, Werthmannstraße 10, D-79085 Freiburg, Germany)

  • Andreas Matzarakis

    (Meteorological Institute, University of Freiburg, Werthmannstraße 10, D-79085 Freiburg, Germany)

  • Elisabeth Koch

    (Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, A-1190 Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the human-biometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970–2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011–2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970–2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41 °C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Muthers & Andreas Matzarakis & Elisabeth Koch, 2010. "Climate Change and Mortality in Vienna—A Human Biometeorological Analysis Based on Regional Climate Modeling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:7:y:2010:i:7:p:2965-2977:d:9042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christoph Schär & Pier Luigi Vidale & Daniel Lüthi & Christoph Frei & Christian Häberli & Mark A. Liniger & Christof Appenzeller, 2004. "The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6972), pages 332-336, January.
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    1. Lina Tang & Alimujiang Kasimu & Haitao Ma & Mamattursun Eziz, 2023. "Monitoring Multi-Scale Ecological Change and Its Potential Drivers in the Economic Zone of the Tianshan Mountains’ Northern Slopes, Xinjiang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-20, February.

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