IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i16p4222-d1720492.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic Bidding for Hydro–Wind–Solar Systems in Cross-Provincial Forward–Spot Markets: A Dimensionality-Reduced and Transmission-Aware Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Zhang

    (Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze and Hydroelectric Science, China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Yichang 443000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Xue Hu

    (Institute of Hydropower & Hydroinformatics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.
    Current address: State Grid Heilongjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. Harbin Power Supply Company, Harbin 150000, China.)

  • Xiangzhen Wang

    (Institute of Hydropower & Hydroinformatics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
    Current address: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China.)

  • Xiaoqian Zhou

    (Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze and Hydroelectric Science, China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Yichang 443000, China)

  • Yuyang Liu

    (Institute of Hydropower & Hydroinformatics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)

  • Bohan Zhang

    (Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze and Hydroelectric Science, China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Yichang 443000, China)

  • Yapeng Li

    (Institute of Hydropower & Hydroinformatics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)

Abstract

Integrated hydro–wind–solar power generators (IPGs) in China face multi-timescale bidding challenges across provincial forward–spot markets, which are further compounded by hydropower nonconvexity and transmission constraints. This study proposes a stochastic optimization model addressing uncertainties from wind–solar generation and spot prices through scenario-based programming, integrating three innovations: average-day dimensionality reduction to harmonize monthly–hourly decisions, local generation function approximation to linearize hydropower operations, and transmission-aware coordination for cross-provincial allocation. Validation on a southwestern China cascade hydropower base transmitting power to eastern load centers shows that the model establishes hydropower-mediated complementarity with daily “solar–daytime, wind–nighttime” and seasonal “wind–winter, solar–summer” patterns. Furthermore, by optimizing cross-provincial power allocation, strategic spot market participation yields 46.4% revenue from 30% generation volume. Additionally, two transmission capacity thresholds are found to guide grid planning: 43.75% capacity marks the economic optimization inflection point, while 75% represents technical saturation. This framework ensures robustness and computational tractability while enabling IPGs to optimize profits and stability in multi-market environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Zhang & Xue Hu & Xiangzhen Wang & Xiaoqian Zhou & Yuyang Liu & Bohan Zhang & Yapeng Li, 2025. "Stochastic Bidding for Hydro–Wind–Solar Systems in Cross-Provincial Forward–Spot Markets: A Dimensionality-Reduced and Transmission-Aware Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-22, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:16:p:4222-:d:1720492
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/16/4222/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/16/4222/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arthur Lauro & Daniel Kitamura & Waleska Lima & Bruno Dias & Tiago Soares, 2023. "Considering Forward Electricity Prices for a Hydro Power Plant Risk Analysis in the Brazilian Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-13, January.
    2. Mi, Hanning & Chen, Sijie & Li, Qingxin & Shi, Ming & Hou, Shuoming & Zheng, Linfeng & Xu, Chengke & Yan, Zheng & Li, Canbing, 2024. "Strategic bidding by predicting locational marginal price with aggregated supply curve," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    3. Li, Xiao & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Cheng, Qian & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Shitian & Zheng, Yalian, 2023. "Strategic bidding for a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system considering the profit beyond forecast time," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 277-289.
    4. Heloísa P. Burin & Julio S. M. Siluk & Graciele Rediske & Carmen B. Rosa, 2020. "Determining Factors and Scenarios of Influence on Consumer Migration from the Regulated Market to the Deregulated Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Cao, Rui & Li, Gang & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2021. "Multivariate probabilistic forecasting and its performance’s impacts on long-term dispatch of hydro-wind hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    6. Jurasz, Jakub & Kies, Alexander & Zajac, Pawel, 2020. "Synergetic operation of photovoltaic and hydro power stations on a day-ahead energy market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Duan, Tianyao & Guo, Huan & Qi, Xiao & Sun, Ming & Forrest, Jeffrey, 2024. "A novel information enhanced Grey Lotka–Volterra model driven by system mechanism and data for energy forecasting of WEET project in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    8. Zhang, Yusheng & Ma, Chao & Yang, Yang & Pang, Xiulan & Lian, Jijian & Wang, Xin, 2022. "Capacity configuration and economic evaluation of a power system integrating hydropower, solar, and wind," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    9. Wang, Huan & Liao, Shengli & Liu, Benxi & Zhao, Hongye & Ma, Xiangyu & Zhou, Binbin, 2024. "Long-term complementary scheduling model of hydro-wind-solar under extreme drought weather conditions using an improved time-varying hedging rule," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    10. Gupta, Akshita & Kumar, Arun & Khatod, Dheeraj Kumar, 2019. "Optimized scheduling of hydropower with increase in solar and wind installations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 716-732.
    11. Hao Feng & Yidi Zhang & Zhou Lan & Kun Wang & Yizheng Wang & Sheng Chen & Changsen Feng, 2024. "Developing China’s Electricity Financial Market: Strategic Design of Financial Derivatives for Risk Management and Market Stability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Loiacono, Luisa & Rizzo, Leonzio & Stagnaro, Carlo, 2025. "Impact of bidding zone re-configurations on electricity prices: Evidence from Sweden," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Nametala, Ciniro Aparecido Leite & Faria, Wandry Rodrigues & Lage, Guilherme Guimarães & Pereira, Benvindo Rodrigues, 2023. "Analysis of hourly price granularity implementation in the Brazilian deregulated electricity contracting environment," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Siyu & Han, Yang & Zalhaf, Amr S. & Chen, Shuheng & Zhou, Te & Yang, Ping & Elboshy, Bahaa, 2023. "A novel multi-objective scheduling model for grid-connected hydro-wind-PV-battery complementary system under extreme weather: A case study of Sichuan, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 818-833.
    2. Wang, Jin & Zhao, Zhipeng & Zhou, Jinglin & Cheng, Chuntian & Su, Huaying, 2024. "Developing operating rules for a hydro–wind–solar hybrid system considering peak-shaving demands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    3. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Qian & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Weifeng & Zheng, Yalian & Han, Dongyang & Xia, Jun, 2023. "An analytical method to evaluate curtailment of hydro–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems and its implication under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    4. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Yang, Zhikai & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Zheyuan & Huang, Kangdi & Xu, Weifeng & Gong, Lanqiang, 2024. "Synchronizing short-, mid-, and long-term operations of hydro-wind-photovoltaic complementary systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    5. Zhang, Yusheng & Ma, Chao & Yang, Yang & Pang, Xiulan & Liu, Lu & Lian, Jijian, 2021. "Study on short-term optimal operation of cascade hydro-photovoltaic hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    6. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Feng, Maoyuan & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Luo, Xinran & Liu, Weibo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Xia, Jun, 2023. "Complementary operation with wind and photovoltaic power induces the decrease in hydropower efficiency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    7. Lei, Kaixuan & Chang, Jianxia & Wang, Yimin & Guo, Aijun & Huang, Mengdi & Xu, Bo, 2022. "Cascade hydropower stations short-term operation for load distribution considering water level synchronous variation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 683-693.
    8. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Shang, Jia’nan & Jurasz, Jakub & Liu, Pan, 2023. "A holistic techno-economic evaluation framework for sizing renewable power plant in a hydro-based hybrid generation system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    9. Chaoyang Chen & Hualing Liu & Yong Xiao & Fagen Zhu & Li Ding & Fuwen Yang, 2022. "Power Generation Scheduling for a Hydro-Wind-Solar Hybrid System: A Systematic Survey and Prospect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-31, November.
    10. Wang, Jin & Zhao, Zhipeng & Zhou, Jinglin & Cheng, Chuntian & Su, Huaying, 2024. "Co-optimization for day-ahead scheduling and flexibility response mode of a hydro–wind–solar hybrid system considering forecast uncertainty of variable renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    11. Ewa Chomać-Pierzecka & Andrzej Kokiel & Joanna Rogozińska-Mitrut & Anna Sobczak & Dariusz Soboń & Jacek Stasiak, 2022. "Hydropower in the Energy Market in Poland and the Baltic States in the Light of the Challenges of Sustainable Development-An Overview of the Current State and Development Potential," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, October.
    12. He, Shaokun & Li, BinBin & Li, Qianxun & Zheng, Hezhen & Chen, Yingjian, 2025. "Refining hydropower operation by dynamic control of cascade reservoir water levels with flood season segmentation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    13. Li, Wanying & Dong, Fugui & Liu, Jiamei & Wang, Peijun & Zhao, Xinru, 2024. "A three-stage decision-making study on capacity configuration of hydropower-wind-photovoltaic-storage complementary systems considering uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    14. Shen, Jian-jian & Cheng, Chun-tian & Jia, Ze-bin & Zhang, Yang & Lv, Quan & Cai, Hua-xiang & Wang, Bang-can & Xie, Meng-fei, 2022. "Impacts, challenges and suggestions of the electricity market for hydro-dominated power systems in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 743-759.
    15. Zhao, Ziwen & Yuan, Yichen & He, Mengjiao & Jurasz, Jakub & Wang, Jianan & Egusquiza, Mònica & Egusquiza, Eduard & Xu, Beibei & Chen, Diyi, 2022. "Stability and efficiency performance of pumped hydro energy storage system for higher flexibility," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 1482-1494.
    16. Wang, Gang & Zhang, Zhen & Lin, Jianqing, 2024. "Multi-energy complementary power systems based on solar energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    17. Pablo David Necoechea-Porras & Asunción López & Juan Carlos Salazar-Elena, 2021. "Deregulation in the Energy Sector and Its Economic Effects on the Power Sector: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-23, March.
    18. Feng, Zhong-kai & Wang, Xin & Niu, Wen-jing, 2025. "Complementary operation optimization of cascade hydropower reservoirs and photovoltaic energy using cooperation search algorithm and conditional generative adversarial networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    19. Jing Bai & Jiahui Wang & Jin Ran & Xingyuan Li & Chuang Tu, 2024. "An Improved Neural Network Algorithm for Energy Consumption Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-19, October.
    20. Guo, Su & Zheng, Kun & He, Yi & Kurban, Aynur, 2023. "The artificial intelligence-assisted short-term optimal scheduling of a cascade hydro-photovoltaic complementary system with hybrid time steps," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1169-1189.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:16:p:4222-:d:1720492. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.