Integrating Dimensional Analysis and Machine Learning for Predictive Maintenance of Francis Turbines in Sediment-Laden Flow

The efficiency decline of Francis turbines, a key component of hydroelectric power generation, presents a multifaceted challenge influenced by interconnected factors such as water quality, incidence angle, erosion, and runner wear. This paper is structured into two main sections to address these issues. The first section applies the Buckingham π theorem to establish a dimensional analysis (DA) framework, providing insights into the relationships among the operational variables and their impact on turbine wear and efficiency loss. Dimensional analysis offers a theoretical basis for understanding the relationships among operational variables and efficiency within the scope of this study. This understanding, in turn, informs the selection and interpretation of features for machine learning (ML) models aimed at the predictive maintenance of the target variable and important features for the next stage. The second section analyzes an extensive dataset collected from a Francis turbine in Colombia, a country that is heavily reliant on hydroelectric power. The dataset consisted of 60,501 samples recorded over 15 days, offering a robust basis for assessing turbine behavior under real-world operating conditions. An exploratory data analysis (EDA) was conducted by integrating linear regression and a time-series analysis to investigate efficiency dynamics. Key variables, including power output, water flow rate, and operational time, were extracted and analyzed to identify patterns and correlations affecting turbine performance. This study seeks to develop a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving Francis turbine efficiency loss and to propose strategies for mitigating wear-induced performance degradation. The synergy lies in DA’s ability to reduce dimensionality and identify meaningful features, which enhances the ML models’ interpretability, while ML leverages these features to model non-linear and time-dependent patterns that DA alone cannot address. This integrated approach results in a linear regression model with a performance (R 2 -Test = 0.994) and a time series using ARIMA with a performance (R 2 -Test = 0.999) that allows for the identification of better generalization, demonstrating the power of combining physical principles with advanced data analysis. The preliminary findings provide valuable insights into the dynamic interplay of operational parameters, contributing to the optimization of turbine operation, efficiency enhancement, and lifespan extension. Ultimately, this study supports the sustainability and economic viability of hydroelectric power generation by advancing tools for predictive maintenance and performance optimization.