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Practical Application of Complementary Regulation Strategy of Run-of-River Small Hydropower and Distributed Photovoltaic Based on Multi-Scale Copula-MPC Algorithm

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  • Xianpin Zhu

    (School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
    Guilin Power Supply Bureau of Guangxi Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guilin 541000, China)

  • Weibo Li

    (School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
    College of Electrical Engineering, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou 730124, China)

  • Shuai Cao

    (School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Wei Xu

    (School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

Abstract

A novel multi-scale copula-based model predictive control (MPC) method is proposed to address the core regulation challenges of runoff hydropower and distributed photovoltaic systems within high-penetration renewable energy grids. Complex spatio-temporal complementarity under ecological constraints and the limitations of conventional methods were critically analyzed. The core innovation lies in integrating copula theory with MPC, enabling adaptive spatio-temporal optimization and weight adjustment to significantly enhance the efficiency of complementary regulation and overcome traditional performance bottlenecks. Key nonlinear dependencies of water–solar resources were investigated, and mainstream techniques (copula analysis, MPC, rolling optimization, adaptive weighting) were evaluated for their applicability. Future directions for improving modeling precision and intelligent adaptive control are outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Xianpin Zhu & Weibo Li & Shuai Cao & Wei Xu, 2025. "Practical Application of Complementary Regulation Strategy of Run-of-River Small Hydropower and Distributed Photovoltaic Based on Multi-Scale Copula-MPC Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-42, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:14:p:3833-:d:1704822
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