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Sustainable Mobility and Emissions: The Role of the Sale Structure in the Automotive Energy Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Orynycz

    (Department of Production Management, Faculty of Engineering Management, Bialystok University of Technology, Wiejska Street 45A, 15-351 Bialystok, Poland)

  • Ondrej Stopka

    (Department of Transport and Logistics, Faculty of Technology, Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, Okružní 517/10, 370 01 České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

  • Anna Borucka

    (Faculty of Security, Logistics and Management, Military University of Technology, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Ewa Kulesza

    (Department of Mechanics and Applied Computer Science, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Bialystok University of Technology, Wiejska Street 45A, 15-351 Bialystok, Poland)

  • Jerzy Merkisz

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering and Transport, Poznań University of Technology, 60-965 Poznań, Poland)

  • Petr Kolařík

    (Department of Transport and Logistics, Faculty of Technology, Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, Okružní 517/10, 370 01 České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess the sale structure impact of selected, popular brands of passenger vehicles on total CO 2 emissions in the context of the energy transition in the transport sector. A detailed analysis was conducted of the projected sales of gasoline-, diesel-, hybrid-, as well as electric-powered vehicles over the years 2021–2028. Based on the available empirical data, a mathematical model was developed to estimate emissions over the entire life cycle of vehicles, taking into account the unit carbon footprint of each type of drivetrain and the expected number of vehicles sold. The results indicate a gradual decline in total CO 2 emissions during the analyzed period, mainly due to the increasing share of alternative drivetrains. Despite the growth in electric vehicle sales, their impact on emission reductions remains limited due to the long lifespan of conventional vehicle fleets. The article concludes with a proposal to expand the LCA model to include regional, energy, and recycling components, which could help in formulating more effective climate policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Orynycz & Ondrej Stopka & Anna Borucka & Ewa Kulesza & Jerzy Merkisz & Petr Kolařík, 2025. "Sustainable Mobility and Emissions: The Role of the Sale Structure in the Automotive Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-19, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:13:p:3313-:d:1686375
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