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Outlook for Offshore Wind Energy Development in Mexico from WRF Simulations and CMIP6 Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Jaime Meza-Carreto

    (Programa de Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico City 04510, Mexico)

  • Rosario Romero-Centeno

    (Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico City 04510, Mexico)

  • Bernardo Figueroa-Espinoza

    (Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto de Abrigo s/n, Sisal 97355, Mexico)

  • Efraín Moreles

    (Unidad Académica Procesos Oceánicos y Costeros, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico City 04510, Mexico)

  • Carlos López-Villalobos

    (Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Xochicalco s/n, Temixco 62580, Mexico)

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the offshore wind energy potential in Mexico across 40 years (1979–2018) of numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The WRF identifies three regions with moderate to good wind potential: off the north coast of Tamaulipas (Zone I), the northwest coast of Yucatan (Zone II), and the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Zone III). The analysis involves comparing 47 CMIP6 climate models with the WRF results and selecting the best performing models to obtain future projections for the short term (2040–2069) and the long term (2070–2099). Two ensemble-based strategies were implemented. The first one, which uses an intersection approach from which four CMIP6 models were considered, reveals positive percentage differences in Zone II for both future projections, especially for the long-term one. In Zones I and III, positive values are also observed near the coast, mainly for the long-term projection, but they are considerably lower compared to those in Zone II. The second ensemble strategy uses weight assignment through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, so that a greater weight is given to the model that performed better in each particular zone, potentially providing more accurate results. The findings suggest the likelihood of increased offshore wind energy in these three zones of Mexico, for both short- and long-term future projections, with positive percentage differences of up to 10% in certain areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaime Meza-Carreto & Rosario Romero-Centeno & Bernardo Figueroa-Espinoza & Efraín Moreles & Carlos López-Villalobos, 2024. "Outlook for Offshore Wind Energy Development in Mexico from WRF Simulations and CMIP6 Projections," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-30, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:8:p:1866-:d:1375218
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
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