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Integrated Energy Systems Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Stakeholder Engagement for Identifying a Sustainable Energy Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Brynhildur Davidsdottir

    (School of Engineering & Natural Sciences, Environment & Natural Resources, University of Iceland, 102 Reykjavik, Iceland)

  • Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson

    (School of Science and Engineering, Reykjavik University, 102 Reykjavik, Iceland)

  • Reza Fazeli

    (School of Engineering, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia)

  • Ingunn Gunnarsdottir

    (Landsvirkjun—The National Power Company of Iceland, 105 Reykjavik, Iceland)

  • Jonathan Leaver

    (School of Building Construction and Engineering, Unitec Institute of Technology, Auckland 1142, New Zealand)

  • Ehsan Shafiei

    (RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, 413 27 Gothenburg, Sweden)

  • Hlynur Stefánsson

    (School of Science and Engineering, Reykjavik University, 102 Reykjavik, Iceland)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to present a decision support system (DSS) to capture the complexity of the transition of a national energy system to net zero in the context of multiple sustainability themes. The paper proposes an integrated assessment framework that combines dynamic systems modeling, sustainability indicators, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with direct stakeholder involvement. To illustrate the use of the DSS, the paper compares bundles of climate change policies that aim to decarbonize the road transport sector in Iceland. Eighteen scenarios and alternative development trajectories are defined for the Icelandic energy system based on a combination of three main driving forces. These are, firstly, economic development (three cases); secondly, changes in energy efficiency (two cases); and finally, three climate policy bundles aimed at increasing the share of electric vehicles. Based on the results from the integrated assessment framework, the performance scores of the climate policy bundles are compared across the following five sustainability themes: social impact; economic development; environmental impact; energy security; and technical aspects. The findings confirm that a different conclusion may be reached when multiple sustainability themes are applied in the selection of preferred policy bundles as compared to conventional techno-economic criteria. Banning the registration of fossil-fueled vehicles, combined with economic instruments, offers the best decarbonizing strategy to reach climate and energy policy goals simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Brynhildur Davidsdottir & Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson & Reza Fazeli & Ingunn Gunnarsdottir & Jonathan Leaver & Ehsan Shafiei & Hlynur Stefánsson, 2024. "Integrated Energy Systems Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Stakeholder Engagement for Identifying a Sustainable Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-28, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:17:p:4266-:d:1464479
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pinar Korkmaz & Roland Cunha Montenegro & Dorothea Schmid & Markus Blesl & Ulrich Fahl, 2020. "On the Way to a Sustainable European Energy System: Setting Up an Integrated Assessment Toolbox with TIMES PanEU as the Key Component," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-36, February.
    2. Francesco Fuso Nerini, 2018. "Shore up support for climate action using SDGs," Nature, Nature, vol. 557(7703), pages 31-31, May.
    3. Narula, Kapil & Reddy, B. Sudhakara, 2015. "Three blind men and an elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 148-158.
    4. Mohammed Alghassab, 2023. "A Computational Case Study on Sustainable Energy Transition in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-18, July.
    5. de Loë, Rob C. & Melnychuk, Natalya & Murray, Dan & Plummer, Ryan, 2016. "Advancing the State of Policy Delphi Practice: A Systematic Review Evaluating Methodological Evolution, Innovation, and Opportunities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 78-88.
    6. Ezbakhe, Fatine & Pérez-Foguet, Agustí, 2021. "Decision analysis for sustainable development: The case of renewable energy planning under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 601-613.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charikleia Karakosta & Jason Papathanasiou, 2024. "Climate-Driven Sustainable Energy Investments: Key Decision Factors for a Low-Carbon Transition Using a Multi-Criteria Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-13, November.
    2. Bahareh Heidary & Mohammad Ali Kiani & Farzin Golzar, 2025. "Toward Sustainable Development: Energy Transition Scenarios for Oil-Dependent Countries, with Iran as a Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-20, May.

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