IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i4p1947-d1069799.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Supervised Anomaly Detection and Comparison between Static and Dynamic Thresholds in Photovoltaic Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Thitiphat Klinsuwan

    (UFR des Sciences et des Techniques, Université de Bourgogne, 21078 Dijon, France)

  • Wachiraphong Ratiphaphongthon

    (Department of Mathematics, University of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD, UK)

  • Rabian Wangkeeree

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Phitsanulok 65000, Thailand
    Research Center for Academic Excellence in Mathematics, Naresuan University, Phitsanulok 65000, Thailand)

  • Rattanaporn Wangkeeree

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Phitsanulok 65000, Thailand
    Research Center for Academic Excellence in Mathematics, Naresuan University, Phitsanulok 65000, Thailand)

  • Chatchai Sirisamphanwong

    (Smart Energy System Integration Research Unit, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Naresuan University, Phitsanulok 65000, Thailand)

Abstract

The use of photovoltaic systems has increased in recent years due to their decreasing costs and improved performance. However, these systems can be susceptible to faults that can reduce efficiency and energy yield. To prevent and reduce these problems, preventive or predictive maintenance and effective monitoring are necessary. PV health monitoring systems and automatic fault detection and diagnosis methods are critical for ensuring PV plants’ reliability, high-efficiency operation, and safety. This paper presents a new framework for developing fault detection in photovoltaic (PV) systems. The proposed approach uses machine learning algorithms to predict energy power production and detect anomalies in PV plants by comparing the predicted power from a model and the measured power from sensors. The framework utilizes historical data to train the prediction model, and live data is compared with predicted values to analyze residuals and detect abnormal scenarios. The proposed approach has been shown to accurately distinguish anomalies using constructed thresholding, either static or dynamic thresholds. The paper also reports experimental results using the Matthews correlation coefficient, a more reliable statistical rate for an imbalanced dataset. The proposed approach leads to a reasonable anomaly detection rate, with an MCC of 0.736 and a balanced ACC of 0.863.

Suggested Citation

  • Thitiphat Klinsuwan & Wachiraphong Ratiphaphongthon & Rabian Wangkeeree & Rattanaporn Wangkeeree & Chatchai Sirisamphanwong, 2023. "Evaluation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Supervised Anomaly Detection and Comparison between Static and Dynamic Thresholds in Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:4:p:1947-:d:1069799
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/4/1947/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/4/1947/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Santhakumari, Manju & Sagar, Netramani, 2019. "A review of the environmental factors degrading the performance of silicon wafer-based photovoltaic modules: Failure detection methods and essential mitigation techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 83-100.
    2. Mellit, A. & Tina, G.M. & Kalogirou, S.A., 2018. "Fault detection and diagnosis methods for photovoltaic systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Sean J. Taylor & Benjamin Letham, 2018. "Forecasting at Scale," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 37-45, January.
    4. Peinado Gonzalo, Alfredo & Pliego Marugán, Alberto & García Márquez, Fausto Pedro, 2020. "Survey of maintenance management for photovoltaic power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Friedman, Jerome H., 2002. "Stochastic gradient boosting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 367-378, February.
    6. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    7. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruiqi Tian & Santiago Gomez-Rosero & Miriam A. M. Capretz, 2023. "Health Prognostics Classification with Autoencoders for Predictive Maintenance of HVAC Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-21, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila S. Lindner & David Zentler-Munro, 2021. "Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 28399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jayesh Thaker & Robert Höller, 2022. "A Comparative Study of Time Series Forecasting of Solar Energy Based on Irradiance Classification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-26, April.
    3. Yagli, Gokhan Mert & Yang, Dazhi & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2019. "Automatic hourly solar forecasting using machine learning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 487-498.
    4. Huei-Wen Teng & Yu-Hsien Li, 2023. "Can deep neural networks outperform Fama-MacBeth regression and other supervised learning approaches in stock returns prediction with asset-pricing factors?," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 149-182, March.
    5. Thangjam, Aditya & Jaipuria, Sanjita & Dadabada, Pradeep Kumar, 2023. "Time-Varying approaches for Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting under economic shocks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    6. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    7. Zhu, Haibin & Bai, Lu & He, Lidan & Liu, Zhi, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility with machine learning: Panel data perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 251-271.
    8. Barzin,Samira & Avner,Paolo & Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik & O’Clery,Neave, 2022. "Where Are All the Jobs ? A Machine Learning Approach for High Resolution Urban Employment Prediction inDeveloping Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9979, The World Bank.
    9. Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Galakis, John & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2021. "Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 647-671.
    10. Li, B. & Delpha, C. & Diallo, D. & Migan-Dubois, A., 2021. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks to photovoltaic fault detection and diagnosis: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Daan Kolkman & Arjen van Witteloostuijn, 2019. "Data Science in Strategy: Machine learning and text analysis in the study of firm growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-066/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Maria-Carmen García-Centeno & Román Mínguez-Salido & Raúl del Pozo-Rubio, 2021. "The Classification of Profiles of Financial Catastrophe Caused by Out-of-Pocket Payments: A Methodological Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, May.
    13. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2019. "Machine Learning Methods Economists Should Know About," Research Papers 3776, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    14. Garvit Arora & Shubhangi Tiwari & Ying Wu & Xuan Mei, 2024. "An Exploration to the Correlation Structure and Clustering of Macroeconomic Variables," Papers 2401.10162, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    15. Konrad Bogner & Florian Pappenberger & Massimiliano Zappa, 2019. "Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting the Energy Consumption/Production and Its Uncertainties Driven by Meteorological Observations and Forecasts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    16. Gür Ali, Özden & Gürlek, Ragıp, 2020. "Automatic Interpretable Retail forecasting with promotional scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1389-1406.
    17. Tutz, Gerhard & Pößnecker, Wolfgang & Uhlmann, Lorenz, 2015. "Variable selection in general multinomial logit models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    18. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    19. Hou-Tai Chang & Ping-Huai Wang & Wei-Fang Chen & Chen-Ju Lin, 2022. "Risk Assessment of Early Lung Cancer with LDCT and Health Examinations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-12, April.
    20. Wang, Qiao & Zhou, Wei & Cheng, Yonggang & Ma, Gang & Chang, Xiaolin & Miao, Yu & Chen, E, 2018. "Regularized moving least-square method and regularized improved interpolating moving least-square method with nonsingular moment matrices," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 325(C), pages 120-145.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:4:p:1947-:d:1069799. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.