IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i18p6697-d1242842.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of Artificial Intelligence Algorithms in Multilayer Perceptron and Elman Networks to Predict Photovoltaic Power Plant Generation

Author

Listed:
  • Grzegorz Drałus

    (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Fundamentals, Rzeszow University of Technology, Al. Powstańców Warszawy 12, 35-959 Rzeszow, Poland)

  • Damian Mazur

    (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Fundamentals, Rzeszow University of Technology, Al. Powstańców Warszawy 12, 35-959 Rzeszow, Poland)

  • Jacek Kusznier

    (Department of Photonics, Electronics and Lighting Technology, Bialystok University of Technology, Wiejska 45A, 15-351 Bialystok, Poland)

  • Jakub Drałus

    (Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, Warszawska 24, 31-155 Krakow, Poland)

Abstract

This paper presents the models developed for the short-term forecasting of energy production by photovoltaic panels. An analysis of a set of weather factors influencing daily energy production is presented. Determining the correlation between the produced direct current (DC) energy and the individual weather parameters allowed the selection of the potentially best explanatory factors, which served as input data for the neural networks. The forecasting models were based on MLP and Elman-type networks. An appropriate selection of structures and learning parameters was carried out, as well as the process of learning the models. The models were built based on different time periods: year-round, semi-annual, and seasonal. The models were developed separately for monocrystalline and amorphous photovoltaic modules. The study compared the models with the predicted and measured insolation energy. In addition, complex forecasting models were developed for the photovoltaic system, which could forecast DC and AC energy simultaneously. The complex models were developed according to the rules of global and local modeling. The forecast errors of the developed models were included. The smallest values of the DC energy forecast errors were achieved for the models designed for summer forecasts. The percentage forecast error was 1.95% using directly measured solar irradiance and 5. 57% using predicted solar irradiance. The complex model for summer forecasted the AC energy with an error of 1.86%.

Suggested Citation

  • Grzegorz Drałus & Damian Mazur & Jacek Kusznier & Jakub Drałus, 2023. "Application of Artificial Intelligence Algorithms in Multilayer Perceptron and Elman Networks to Predict Photovoltaic Power Plant Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-23, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:18:p:6697-:d:1242842
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/18/6697/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/18/6697/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernández-Guillamón, Ana & Gómez-Lázaro, Emilio & Muljadi, Eduard & Molina-García, Ángel, 2019. "Power systems with high renewable energy sources: A review of inertia and frequency control strategies over time," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Theocharides, Spyros & Makrides, George & Livera, Andreas & Theristis, Marios & Kaimakis, Paris & Georghiou, George E., 2020. "Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    3. Spyros Theocharides & Marios Theristis & George Makrides & Marios Kynigos & Chrysovalantis Spanias & George E. Georghiou, 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Production Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-22, February.
    4. Grzegorz Dec & Grzegorz Drałus & Damian Mazur & Bogdan Kwiatkowski, 2021. "Forecasting Models of Daily Energy Generation by PV Panels Using Fuzzy Logic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, March.
    5. Donghun Lee & Kwanho Kim, 2019. "Recurrent Neural Network-Based Hourly Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Meteorological Information," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    6. Wenju Sang & Wenyong Guo & Shaotao Dai & Chenyu Tian & Suhang Yu & Yuping Teng, 2022. "Virtual Synchronous Generator, a Comprehensive Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-29, August.
    7. Jacek Kusznier, 2023. "Influence of Environmental Factors on the Intelligent Management of Photovoltaic and Wind Sections in a Hybrid Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Alberto Dolara & Francesco Grimaccia & Sonia Leva & Marco Mussetta & Emanuele Ogliari, 2015. "A Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Forecasting of PV Plant Power Output," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Myada Shadoul & Razzaqul Ahshan & Rashid S. AlAbri & Abdullah Al-Badi & Mohammed Albadi & Mohsin Jamil, 2022. "A Comprehensive Review on a Virtual-Synchronous Generator: Topologies, Control Orders and Techniques, Energy Storages, and Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-27, November.
    10. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "A comparison of day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on deep learning neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Lina Alhmoud, 2023. "Why Does the PV Solar Power Plant Operate Ineffectively?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-38, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiahui Wang & Mingsheng Jia & Shishi Li & Kang Chen & Cheng Zhang & Xiuyu Song & Qianxi Zhang, 2024. "Short-Term Power-Generation Prediction of High Humidity Island Photovoltaic Power Station Based on a Deep Hybrid Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-24, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Bailek, Nadjem & Bouchouicha, Kada & Nwokolo, Samuel Chukwujindu, 2021. "Ultra-short-term exogenous forecasting of photovoltaic power production using genetically optimized non-linear auto-regressive recurrent neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 191-209.
    2. Spyros Theocharides & Marios Theristis & George Makrides & Marios Kynigos & Chrysovalantis Spanias & George E. Georghiou, 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Production Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Derong Lv & Guojiang Xiong & Xiaofan Fu & Yang Wu & Sheng Xu & Hao Chen, 2022. "Optimal Power Flow with Stochastic Solar Power Using Clustering-Based Multi-Objective Differential Evolution," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Zhi, Yuan & Yang, Xudong, 2023. "Scenario-based multi-objective optimization strategy for rural PV-battery systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 345(C).
    5. Li, Naiqing & Li, Longhao & Zhang, Fan & Jiao, Ticao & Wang, Shuang & Liu, Xuefeng & Wu, Xinghua, 2023. "Research on short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on multi-scale similar days and ESN-KELM dual core prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    6. Şahin, Utkucan & Ballı, Serkan & Chen, Yan, 2021. "Forecasting seasonal electricity generation in European countries under Covid-19-induced lockdown using fractional grey prediction models and machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    7. Aleksandar Dimovski & Matteo Moncecchi & Davide Falabretti & Marco Merlo, 2020. "PV Forecast for the Optimal Operation of the Medium Voltage Distribution Network: A Real-Life Implementation on a Large Scale Pilot," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-21, October.
    8. Alfredo Nespoli & Emanuele Ogliari & Sonia Leva & Alessandro Massi Pavan & Adel Mellit & Vanni Lughi & Alberto Dolara, 2019. "Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Forecasting: A Comparison of the Most Effective Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, April.
    9. Nguyen, Thi Ngoc & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    10. Sarmas, Elissaios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Stamatopoulos, Efstathios & Marinakis, Vangelis & Doukas, Haris, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using meta-learning and numerical weather prediction independent Long Short-Term Memory models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    11. Athanasios I. Salamanis & Georgia Xanthopoulou & Napoleon Bezas & Christos Timplalexis & Angelina D. Bintoudi & Lampros Zyglakis & Apostolos C. Tsolakis & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dionysios Kehagias & , 2020. "Benchmark Comparison of Analytical, Data-Based and Hybrid Models for Multi-Step Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-31, November.
    12. Muhammad Naveed Akhter & Saad Mekhilef & Hazlie Mokhlis & Ziyad M. Almohaimeed & Munir Azam Muhammad & Anis Salwa Mohd Khairuddin & Rizwan Akram & Muhammad Majid Hussain, 2022. "An Hour-Ahead PV Power Forecasting Method Based on an RNN-LSTM Model for Three Different PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    13. Tziolis, Georgios & Spanias, Chrysovalantis & Theodoride, Maria & Theocharides, Spyros & Lopez-Lorente, Javier & Livera, Andreas & Makrides, George & Georghiou, George E., 2023. "Short-term electric net load forecasting for solar-integrated distribution systems based on Bayesian neural networks and statistical post-processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    14. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    15. Lee, Donghun & Kim, Kwanho, 2021. "PV power prediction in a peak zone using recurrent neural networks in the absence of future meteorological information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1098-1110.
    16. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhou, Yilin & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Hour-ahead photovoltaic generation forecasting method based on machine learning and multi objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    17. Barja-Martinez, Sara & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Munné-Collado, Íngrid & Lloret-Gallego, Pau & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Villafafila-Robles, Roberto, 2021. "Artificial intelligence techniques for enabling Big Data services in distribution networks: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    18. du Plessis, A.A. & Strauss, J.M. & Rix, A.J., 2021. "Short-term solar power forecasting: Investigating the ability of deep learning models to capture low-level utility-scale Photovoltaic system behaviour," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    19. Myada Shadoul & Razzaqul Ahshan & Rashid S. AlAbri & Abdullah Al-Badi & Mohammed Albadi & Mohsin Jamil, 2022. "A Comprehensive Review on a Virtual-Synchronous Generator: Topologies, Control Orders and Techniques, Energy Storages, and Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-27, November.
    20. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:18:p:6697-:d:1242842. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.